Yu P B, Tian H Y, Ma C F, Ma C A, Wei J, Lu X L, Wang Z, Zhou S, Li S, Dong J H, Xu J R, Xu B, Wang J J
Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi'an, Shaanxi,China.
College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Jan;143(2):405-11. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814001009. Epub 2014 May 1.
The transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is deeply influenced by the reservoir and hantavirus prevalence rate. In this study, a surveillance on human HFRS cases, relative rodent abundance, and hantavirus infection prevalence was conducted in Shaanxi province, China, during 1984-2012. A generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link was used to quantify the relationship between reservoir, virus and HFRS cases. The result indicated that there was a significant association of HFRS incidence with relative rodent density and the prevalence rate. This research provides evidence that the changes of infection prevalence in the reservoir could lead directly to the emergence of a new epidemic. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的传播受到宿主动物和汉坦病毒流行率的深刻影响。本研究于1984 - 2012年期间在中国陕西省开展了关于人类HFRS病例、相关啮齿动物数量及汉坦病毒感染流行率的监测。采用具有泊松分布残差和对数链接的广义线性模型来量化宿主动物、病毒与HFRS病例之间的关系。结果表明，HFRS发病率与相对啮齿动物密度及流行率之间存在显著关联。该研究提供了证据，表明宿主动物感染流行率的变化可直接导致新疫情的出现。得出的结论是，对这些变量中的若干变量进行测量可用于疾病监测，以对潜在的疾病流行发出有用的预警。
