A double-quadratic model for predicting Vibrio species in water environments of Japan.

Vibrio spp. are natural inhabitants of marine and estuarine environments. Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio vulnificus are the major infectious agents for humans. Their densities are affected by environmental factors such as water temperature and salinity. The detailed contribution of each factor still remains to be elucidated. Here we conducted multi-coastal study in a 21-month period to examine relationships between environmental factors and V. cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus densities in sea surface water in eight coastal sites of four prefectures in Japan. Vibrio densities were measured by a most-probable-number with PCR method which is highly sensitive and quantitative (3/100 ml of detection limit). Vibrio densities were analyzed with environmental factors including water temperature, salinity, total dissolved substance, and pH, and their quadratics. A linear regression model suited best for prediction of V. cholerae density. A novel double-quadratic model suited best for the prediction of V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus densities.