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用于预测日本水环境中弧菌属物种的双二次模型。

A double-quadratic model for predicting Vibrio species in water environments of Japan.

作者信息

Izumiya Hidemasa, Furukawa Masato, Ogata Kikuyo, Isobe Junko, Watanabe Setsu, Sasaki Mari, Ichinose Kazuya, Arakawa Eiji, Morita Masatomo, Kurane Ichiro, Ohnishi Makoto

机构信息

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.

Kumamoto Prefectural Institute of Public-Health and Environmental Science, Kumamoto, Japan.

出版信息

Arch Microbiol. 2017 Nov;199(9):1293-1302. doi: 10.1007/s00203-017-1402-1. Epub 2017 Jun 23.

DOI:10.1007/s00203-017-1402-1
PMID:28646477
Abstract

Vibrio spp. are natural inhabitants of marine and estuarine environments. Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio vulnificus are the major infectious agents for humans. Their densities are affected by environmental factors such as water temperature and salinity. The detailed contribution of each factor still remains to be elucidated. Here we conducted multi-coastal study in a 21-month period to examine relationships between environmental factors and V. cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus densities in sea surface water in eight coastal sites of four prefectures in Japan. Vibrio densities were measured by a most-probable-number with PCR method which is highly sensitive and quantitative (3/100 ml of detection limit). Vibrio densities were analyzed with environmental factors including water temperature, salinity, total dissolved substance, and pH, and their quadratics. A linear regression model suited best for prediction of V. cholerae density. A novel double-quadratic model suited best for the prediction of V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus densities.

摘要

弧菌属是海洋和河口环境的天然栖息者。霍乱弧菌、副溶血性弧菌和创伤弧菌是主要的人类感染源。它们的密度受水温、盐度等环境因素影响。每个因素的具体作用仍有待阐明。在此,我们在21个月的时间里进行了多海岸研究,以考察日本四个县八个沿海地点海水中环境因素与霍乱弧菌、副溶血性弧菌和创伤弧菌密度之间的关系。弧菌密度通过最可能数与PCR方法进行测量,该方法高度灵敏且定量(检测限为3/100毫升)。弧菌密度与包括水温、盐度、总溶解物质和pH值及其二次方在内的环境因素进行了分析。线性回归模型最适合预测霍乱弧菌密度。一种新型双二次模型最适合预测副溶血性弧菌和创伤弧菌密度。

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