Herrero Mario, Thornton Philip K, Power Brendan, Bogard Jessica R, Remans Roseline, Fritz Steffen, Gerber James S, Nelson Gerald, See Linda, Waha Katharina, Watson Reg A, West Paul C, Samberg Leah H, van de Steeg Jeannette, Stephenson Eloise, van Wijk Mark, Havlík Petr
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia.
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Nairobi, Kenya.
Lancet Planet Health. 2017 Apr;1(1):e33-e42. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30007-4.
Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change.
We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B, folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index []) changes with different farm sizes.
Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51-77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and central America, medium-size farms (20-50 ha) also contribute substantially to the production of most food commodities. Very small farms (≤2 ha) are important and have local significance in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and south Asia, where they contribute to about 30% of most food commodities. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%), and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes (>1·5). Similarly, the majority of global micronutrients (53-81%) and protein (57%) are also produced in more diverse agricultural landscapes (>1·5). By contrast, the majority of sugar (73%) and oil crops (57%) are produced in less diverse ones (≤1·5), which also account for the majority of global calorie production (56%). The diversity of agricultural and nutrient production diminishes as farm size increases. However, areas of the world with higher agricultural diversity produce more nutrients, irrespective of farm size.
Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic, and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. Efforts to maintain production diversity as farm sizes increase seem to be necessary to maintain the production of diverse nutrients and viable, multifunctional, sustainable landscapes.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health funded by the CGIAR Fund Council, Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change-Belmont Forum.
了解全球农业结构、养分生产及其多样性,对于增进当前对各国粮食生产模式、农业生计、食物链及其与土地利用以及相关生态系统服务之间联系的认识至关重要。在此,我们按农场规模对全球农业和养分生产进行了合理分类,并研究了农场规模、农业多样性和养分生产之间的关联。面对人口增长、城市化和气候变化,这一分析对于设计可能有的针对性干预措施以促进健康饮食和生态系统至关重要。
我们利用现有的空间明确的全球数据集,估算了41种主要作物、7种牲畜以及14种水产养殖和鱼类产品的产量。从总体产量估算中,我们估算了维生素A、维生素B、叶酸、铁、锌、钙、卡路里和蛋白质的产量。我们还估算了不同规模农场对不同农产品和相关养分生产的相对贡献,以及基于每个地理像素种植的不同产品数量和该像素内产品分布(香农多样性指数)的粮食生产多样性如何随农场规模变化。
在全球范围内,中小型农场(≤50公顷)生产了这里所考察的几乎所有商品和养分的51 - 77%。然而,存在重要的区域差异。大型农场(>50公顷)在北美、南美以及澳大利亚和新西兰的生产中占主导地位。在这些地区,大型农场对所有谷物、牲畜和水果产量的贡献在75%至100%之间,其他商品组的情况也类似。相比之下,小型农场(≤20公顷)在撒哈拉以南非洲、东南亚、南亚和中国生产了超过75%的大多数粮食商品。在欧洲、西亚和北非以及中美洲,中型农场(20 - 50公顷)对大多数粮食商品的生产也有很大贡献。非常小的农场(≤2公顷)在撒哈拉以南非洲、东南亚和南亚很重要且具有地方意义,它们对大多数粮食商品的贡献约为30%。大多数蔬菜(81%)、块根和块茎(72%)、豆类(67%)、水果(66%)、鱼类和牲畜产品(60%)以及谷物(56%)产自多样性较高的景观(>1.5)。同样,全球大多数微量营养素(53 - 81%)和蛋白质(57%)也产自农业多样性更高的景观(>1.5)。相比之下,大多数糖(73%)和油料作物(57%)产自多样性较低的景观(≤1.5),这些景观也占全球卡路里产量的大多数(56%)。农业和养分生产的多样性随着农场规模的增加而减少。然而,世界上农业多样性较高的地区生产了更多养分,与农场规模无关。
我们的结果表明,农场规模和农业生产多样性在各地区差异很大,是粮食和养分生产的关键结构决定因素,在实现社会、经济和环境目标的计划中需要加以考虑。在全球层面,小型和大型农场在粮食和营养安全方面都发挥着关键作用。随着农场规模的增加,努力维持生产多样性似乎对于维持多种养分的生产以及可行的、多功能的、可持续的景观是必要的。
英联邦科学与工业研究组织、比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会、由国际农业研究磋商组织基金理事会资助的国际农业研究磋商组织气候变化、农业与粮食安全研究计划以及农业促进营养与健康研究计划、丹尼尔和尼娜·卡拉索基金会、欧盟、国际农业发展基金、澳大利亚研究理事会、美国国家科学基金会、戈登和贝蒂·摩尔基金会以及农业、粮食安全与气候变化联合规划倡议 - 贝尔蒙论坛。