College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Dec 31;607-608:78-86. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.258. Epub 2017 Jul 5.
China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH emissions. The total NH emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH·yr (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH·yr), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr increasing on average 4.4%·yr. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH·yr (11.5-16.3TgNH·yr). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels.
中国快速的城市化进程、庞大的人口基数以及日益增长的高能量和肉类密集型饮食消费，导致中国成为世界上最大的畜牧业氨（NH）排放源。这是首次使用基于中国最新的粪肥管理和环境条件研究的省级、特定条件排放因子进行的研究。所估计的 NH 排放时间趋势和空间格局与影响畜牧业生产的政府政策相关联进行了解释。情景分析用于预测 2030 年的 NH 排放量和估计 NH 减排的潜力。我们根据县级活动数据生成了一个基于 2008 年的 1km×1km 网格化 NH 排放清单，这有助于确定 NH 排放最高的位置。2008 年，来自畜牧业粪肥的 NH 总排放量为 7.3TgNH·yr（四分位距为 6.1-8.6TgNH·yr），主要来源是家禽（29.9%）、猪（28.4%）、其他牛（27.9%）和奶牛（7.0%），而绵羊和山羊（3.6%）、驴（1.3%）、马（1.2%）和骡子（0.7%）的贡献较小。1978 年至 2008 年，NH 排放量呈波动状，有两个峰值（1996 年和 2006 年），总排放量从 2.2TgNH·yr 增加到 7.3TgNH·yr，平均每年增加 4.4%。在现状情景（BAU）下，预计 2030 年 NH 排放量将达到 13.9TgNH·yr（11.5-16.3TgNH·yr）。在减排情景下，与 2030 年 BAU 排放量相比，预计排放量可减少 18.9-37.3%。本研究提高了我们对畜牧业 NH 排放的认识，这对于在国家和地区层面指导利益攸关方和决策者制定明智的畜牧业 NH 减排决策非常重要。
