Department of Mathematics, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 210016, P.R. China.
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 1010, Cidade Universitária, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 10;7(1):7721. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-07264-y.
Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, started spread across Central and Southern America and more recently to North America. The most serious impacted country is Brazil. Based on the transmission mechanism of the virus and assessment of the limited data on the reported suspected cases, we establish a dynamical model which allows us to estimate the basic reproduction number R = 2.5020. The wild spreading of the virus make it a great challenge to public health to control and prevention of the virus. We formulate two control models to study the impact of releasing transgenosis mosquitoes (introducing bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti) on the transmission of Zika virus in Brazil. Our models and analysis suggest that simultaneously releasing Wolbachia-harboring female and male mosquitoes will achieve the target of population replacement, while releasing only Wolbachia-harboring male mosquitoes will suppress or even eradicate wild mosquitoes eventually. We conclude that only releasing male Wolbachia mosquitoes is a better strategy for control the spreading of Zika virus in Brazil.
寨卡病毒是一种重新出现的蚊媒黄病毒，已开始在中美洲和南美洲传播，最近还传播到了北美洲。受影响最严重的国家是巴西。基于该病毒的传播机制和对报告的疑似病例的有限数据评估，我们建立了一个动力学模型，该模型使我们能够估计基本繁殖数 R = 2.5020。病毒的野生传播给控制和预防病毒带来了巨大的公共卫生挑战。我们制定了两个控制模型来研究在巴西释放转基因蚊子（将沃尔巴克氏体引入埃及伊蚊）对寨卡病毒传播的影响。我们的模型和分析表明，同时释放携带沃尔巴克氏体的雌性和雄性蚊子将实现种群替代的目标，而仅释放携带沃尔巴克氏体的雄性蚊子最终将抑制甚至消灭野生蚊子。我们得出结论，仅释放雄性沃尔巴克氏体蚊子是控制巴西寨卡病毒传播的更好策略。
