Department of Psychology, City University of London, London EC1V 0HB, United Kingdom; email:
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405, USA; email:
Annu Rev Psychol. 2022 Jan 4;73:749-778. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501. Epub 2021 Sep 21.
Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum probability theory offers a set of principles for inference, which align well with intuition about psychological processes in certain cases: cases when it appears that inference is contextual, the mental state changes as a result of previous judgments, or there is interference between different possibilities. We motivate the use of quantum theory in cognition and its key characteristics. For each of these characteristics, we review relevant quantum cognitive models and empirical support. The scope of quantum cognitive models encompasses fallacies in decision-making (such as the conjunction fallacy or the disjunction effect), question order effects, conceptual combination, evidence accumulation, perception, over-/underdistribution effects in memory, and more. Quantum models often formalize psychological ideas previously expressed in heuristic terms, allow unified explanations of previously disparate findings, and have led to several surprising, novel predictions. We also cast a critical eye on quantum models and consider some of their shortcomings and issues regarding their further development.
不确定性是生活的固有组成部分；大多数事件、事务和问题都是不确定的。行为科学中的一个关键问题是大脑如何应对不确定的信息。量子概率论为推理提供了一套原则，这些原则在某些情况下与关于心理过程的直觉相符：当推理似乎具有语境性、心理状态因先前的判断而改变、或者不同可能性之间存在干扰时。我们在认知中激发量子理论的应用，并探讨其关键特征。对于每个特征，我们都会回顾相关的量子认知模型和实证支持。量子认知模型的范围涵盖决策中的谬误（如合取谬误或析取效应）、问题顺序效应、概念组合、证据积累、感知、记忆中的过度/不足分配效应等等。量子模型通常以启发式术语形式化心理概念，允许对以前不一致的发现进行统一解释，并导致了一些令人惊讶的新颖预测。我们还对量子模型进行了批判性的审视，考虑了它们的一些缺点和进一步发展的问题。
