Squires Allison, Jylhä Virpi, Jun Jin, Ensio Anneli, Kinnunen Juha
Rory Meyers College of Nursing, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
The Nursing Research Foundation and The Finnish Centre for Evidence-Based Health Care: A Joanna Briggs Institute Centre of Excellence, Helsinki, Finland.
J Nurs Manag. 2017 Nov;25(8):587-596. doi: 10.1111/jonm.12510. Epub 2017 Sep 10.
This study will critically evaluate forecasting models and their content in workforce planning policies for nursing professionals and to highlight the strengths and the weaknesses of existing approaches.
Although macro-level nursing workforce issues may not be the first thing that many nurse managers consider in daily operations, the current and impending nursing shortage in many countries makes nursing specific models for workforce forecasting important.
A scoping review was conducted using a directed and summative content analysis approach to capture supply and demand analytic methods of nurse workforce planning and forecasting. The literature on nurse workforce forecasting studies published in peer-reviewed journals as well as in grey literature was included in the scoping review.
Thirty six studies met the inclusion criteria, with the majority coming from the USA. Forecasting methods were biased towards service utilization analyses and were not consistent across studies.
Current methods for nurse workforce forecasting are inconsistent and have not accounted sufficiently for socioeconomic and political factors that can influence workforce projections. Additional studies examining past trends are needed to improve future modelling.
Accurate nursing workforce forecasting can help nurse managers, administrators and policy makers to understand the supply and demand of the workforce to prepare and maintain an adequate and competent current and future workforce.
本研究将严格评估护理专业人员劳动力规划政策中的预测模型及其内容，并突出现有方法的优势与不足。
尽管宏观层面的护理劳动力问题可能并非许多护士长在日常工作中首先考虑的事情，但许多国家当前及即将出现的护理人员短缺使得针对护理行业的劳动力预测模型变得至关重要。
采用定向和总结性内容分析方法进行范围综述，以获取护士劳动力规划和预测的供需分析方法。范围综述纳入了同行评审期刊以及灰色文献中发表的关于护士劳动力预测研究的文献。
三十六项研究符合纳入标准，其中大多数来自美国。预测方法偏向于服务利用分析，且各研究之间不一致。
当前护士劳动力预测方法不一致，且未充分考虑可能影响劳动力预测的社会经济和政治因素。需要进行更多研究以考察过去的趋势，从而改进未来的模型。
准确的护理劳动力预测有助于护士长、管理人员和政策制定者了解劳动力的供需情况，以准备和维持一支充足且称职的当前及未来劳动力队伍。
