Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Ravila 19, 50411, Tartu, Estonia.
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden.
Curr Environ Health Rep. 2017 Dec;4(4):504-513. doi: 10.1007/s40572-017-0168-6.
Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research.
Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.
空气污染对健康有重大影响,每年导致多达 700 万人过早死亡,导致更多的住院和病假。气候变化可能会改变主要污染物,特别是颗粒物的扩散,并加剧二次污染物的形成,如近地表臭氧。本综述的目的是评估气候变化对空气污染和与空气污染有关的健康影响的最新证据,并确定未来研究的知识空白。
一些研究建立了未来臭氧和颗粒物浓度的模型,并根据不同的气候情景计算了由此产生的健康影响。由于气候变化,预计大多数研究中臭氧和细颗粒物相关的死亡率将会增加;然而,结果因地区、假设的气候变化情景以及人口和背景排放等其他因素而异。本综述探讨了气候变化、空气污染和与空气污染有关的健康影响之间的关系。结果高度依赖于所使用的气候变化情景和对未来空气污染排放的预测,具有相对较高的不确定性。研究主要集中在死亡率上;需要对发病率的影响进行预测。