Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
PLoS One. 2017 Dec 4;12(12):e0187830. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187830. eCollection 2017.
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) is a severe paralytic neuropathy associated with virus infections such as Zika virus and Chikungunya virus. There were also case reports of dengue fever preceding GBS. With the aim to understand the mechanisms of GBS and dengue outbreaks, this ecological study investigates the relationships between GBS, dengue, meteorological factors in Hong Kong and global climatic factors from January 2000 to June 2016.
The correlations between GBS, dengue, Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and local meteorological data were explored by Spearman's Rank correlations and cross-correlations. Three Poisson regression models were fitted to identify non-linear associations among GBS, dengue and MEI. Cross wavelet analyses were applied to infer potential non-stationary oscillating associations among GBS, dengue and MEI.
We report a substantial increasing of local GBS and dengue cases (mainly imported) in recent year in Hong Kong. The seasonalities of GBS and dengue are different, in particular, GBS is low while dengue is high in the summer. We found weak but significant correlations between GBS and local meteorological factors. MEI could explain over 17% of dengue's variations based on Poisson regression analyses. We report a possible non-stationary oscillating association between dengue fever and GBS cases in Hong Kong. This study has led to an improved understanding about the timing and ecological relationships between MEI, GBS and dengue.
格林-巴利综合征（GBS）是一种严重的瘫痪性周围神经病，与寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒等病毒感染有关。也有登革热先于 GBS 发生的病例报告。为了了解 GBS 的发病机制和登革热疫情，本生态研究调查了 2000 年 1 月至 2016 年 6 月期间香港的 GBS、登革热、多变量厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数（MEI）与全球气候因素之间的关系。
通过 Spearman 秩相关和交叉相关分析探讨了 GBS、登革热、MEI 与当地气象数据之间的相关性。采用三种泊松回归模型来确定 GBS、登革热和 MEI 之间的非线性关联。应用交叉小波分析推断 GBS、登革热和 MEI 之间潜在的非平稳振荡关联。
我们报告了香港近年来本地 GBS 和登革热病例（主要为输入性病例）大量增加。GBS 和登革热的季节性不同，特别是夏季 GBS 发病率较低，而登革热发病率较高。我们发现 GBS 与当地气象因素之间存在微弱但显著的相关性。基于泊松回归分析，MEI 可以解释 17%以上的登革热变化。我们报告了香港登革热和 GBS 病例之间可能存在非平稳振荡关联。本研究提高了我们对 MEI、GBS 和登革热之间时间和生态关系的认识。
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