Department of Statistical Science, University College, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Stat Med. 2018 May 10;37(10):1636-1649. doi: 10.1002/sim.7604. Epub 2018 Jan 31.
Continuous-time multistate survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition probabilities. Models can be specified using parametric or semiparametric shapes for the hazards. Semiparametric hazards can be fitted using P-splines and penalised maximum likelihood estimation. This paper presents a method to estimate flexible multistate models that allow for parametric and semiparametric hazard specifications. The estimation is based on a scoring algorithm. The method is illustrated with data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
连续时间多状态生存模型可用于描述随时间变化的健康相关过程。在生存状态之间的转移存在区间删失时间的情况下，使用转移概率构建似然函数。可以使用参数或半参数形状来指定模型的危险率。半参数危险率可以使用 P-样条和惩罚最大似然估计来拟合。本文提出了一种估计灵活的多状态模型的方法，该模型允许参数和半参数危险率指定。估计基于评分算法。该方法通过来自英国老龄化纵向研究的数据进行说明。
