Office of Public Health Studies, Myron B Thompson School of Social Work, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1960 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States of America (USA).
Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Bull World Health Organ. 2018 Feb 1;96(2):129-134. doi: 10.2471/BLT.17.199588. Epub 2017 Dec 5.
There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.
目前，人们迫切需要加大对重大传染病和大流行病防范工作的投资。支持此类投资的理由主要是基于对重大传染病或大流行病可能导致的国民收入损失的估计。最近，我们将估计范围扩大到包括因大流行病导致死亡率上升而造成的生命损失的估值。这使得对未来大流行病可能造成的全部损失价值的估计明显提高。我们对全球流感大流行的超越概率函数进行了参数化，并估计每年与流感大流行相关的死亡人数约为 72 万。我们计算出，每年因大流行病风险造成的损失预计约为 5000 亿美元，即全球收入的 0.6%。这一估计值处于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）对全球变暖损失价值的估计范围之内（0.2%至 2%），但接近下限。预期损失的年值占各国国民收入的百分比因国家收入分组而异：高收入国家略高于 0.3%，中低收入国家为 1.6%。流感大流行造成的大部分损失来自罕见的严重事件。
