Solomon Starr J, Savolainen Jukka, Mason W Alex, Miettunen Jouko, January Stacy-Ann A, Järvelin Marjo-Riitta
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Nebraska-Omaha, 6001 Dodge Street, 218 CPACS, Omaha, NE 68182, USA.
Institute for Social Research, ICPSR, University of Michigan, P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48106, USA.
J Dev Life Course Criminol. 2017 Sep;3(3):326-346. doi: 10.1007/s40865-017-0062-9. Epub 2017 Jun 27.
Early exposure to multiple risk factors is known to predict involvement in criminal offending. The purpose of this study was to examine the processes responsible for this association. Specifically, the focus was on the capacity of adolescent educational experience to mediate the effect of childhood cumulative risk (CCR) on criminal offending, net of expected continuity in antisocial propensity and behavior.
Data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort Study 1986 ( = 5,743) were used to estimate a structural equation model to examine the hypothesized pathways. The educational pathway was captured by a latent variable (educational marginalization) consisting of indicators of low academic performance, weak school attachment, and low educational aspirations.
CCR had a strong positive relation with educational marginalization, which, in turn, emerged as a statistically significant predictor of having criminal record by age 19. Although continuity in antisocial behavior accounted for most of the total effect of CCR on criminal offending, one third of it was mediated by educational marginalization.
The results highlight the adolescent educational experience as a promising target of intervention in efforts to curb criminal careers among children at risk.
已知早期接触多种风险因素可预测参与犯罪行为。本研究的目的是检验造成这种关联的过程。具体而言，重点在于青少年教育经历在抵消反社会倾向和行为预期连续性的情况下，对童年累积风险（CCR）对犯罪行为影响的中介作用。
使用1986年芬兰北部出生队列研究（n = 5743）的数据来估计一个结构方程模型，以检验假设的路径。教育路径由一个潜在变量（教育边缘化）来体现，该变量由学业成绩低、学校归属感弱和教育期望低等指标组成。
CCR与教育边缘化呈强正相关，而教育边缘化反过来又成为19岁时有犯罪记录的一个具有统计学意义的预测因素。虽然反社会行为的连续性占CCR对犯罪行为总影响的大部分，但其中三分之一是由教育边缘化介导的。
研究结果突出了青少年教育经历作为遏制高危儿童犯罪生涯干预措施的一个有前景的目标。
