检测海平面上升显著加速的时间尺度。
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.
作者信息
Haigh Ivan D, Wahl Thomas, Rohling Eelco J, Price René M, Pattiaratchi Charitha B, Calafat Francisco M, Dangendorf Sönke
机构信息
1] Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK [2] School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
1] Research Centre Siegen, University of Siegen, Hagener Street 139, 57072 Siegen, Germany [2] College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2014 Apr 14;5:3635. doi: 10.1038/ncomms4635.
There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
有观测证据表明全球海平面正在上升，人们担心上升速度将会加快，这对沿海社区构成了重大威胁。然而，关于海平面上升速度目前是否正在加快以及如果加快的话加快了多少，仍存在大量争论。在这里，我们通过应用先前用于在历史数据中寻找加速变化的主要方法，对海平面加速变化提供了新的见解，以确定在我们人为扩展到2100年的海平面记录中，加速变化可能首次以具有统计学意义的方式被识别（如果尚未明显）的时间（存在不确定性）。我们发现，尽早检测到显著海平面加速变化的最重要方法在于更好地理解（并随后消除）海平面记录中年际到年代际的变率。
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