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基于性活动分布的流行潜力。

Epidemic potential by sexual activity distributions.

作者信息

Moody James, Adams Jimi, Morris Martina

机构信息

Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA and Department of Sociology, King Abdulaziz University, Jedda, Saudi Arabia.

Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, USA.

出版信息

Netw Sci (Camb Univ Press). 2017 Dec;5(4):461-475. doi: 10.1017/nws.2017.3. Epub 2017 Apr 24.

DOI:10.1017/nws.2017.3
PMID:29449942
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5809000/
Abstract

For sexually transmitted infections like HIV to propagate through a population, there must be a path linking susceptible cases to currently infectious cases. The existence of such paths depends in part on the Here, we use simulation methods to examine how two features of the degree distribution affect network connectivity: Mean degree captures a volume dimension, while the skewness of the upper tail captures a shape dimension. We find a clear interaction between shape and volume: When mean degree is low, connectivity is greater for long-tailed distributions, but at higher mean degree, connectivity is greater in short-tailed distributions. The phase transition to a giant component and giant bicomponent emerges as a positive function of volume, but it rises more sharply and ultimately reaches more people in short-tail distributions than in long-tail distributions. These findings suggest that any interventions should be attuned to how practices affect both the volume and shape of the degree distribution, noting potential unanticipated effects. For example, policies that primarily affect high-volume nodes may not be effective if they simply redistribute volume among lower degree actors, which appears to exacerbate underlying network connectivity.

摘要

对于像HIV这样的性传播感染在人群中传播而言,必须存在一条将易感个体与当前感染个体联系起来的路径。此类路径的存在部分取决于……在此,我们使用模拟方法来研究度分布的两个特征如何影响网络连通性:平均度体现了一个规模维度,而上尾的偏度体现了一个形状维度。我们发现形状和规模之间存在明显的相互作用:当平均度较低时,长尾分布的连通性更强,但在平均度较高时,短尾分布的连通性更强。向巨型组件和巨型双组件的相变作为规模的正函数出现,但在短尾分布中它上升得更急剧,最终覆盖的人数比长尾分布更多。这些发现表明,任何干预措施都应根据行为如何影响度分布的规模和形状进行调整,注意潜在的意外影响。例如,如果主要影响高规模节点的政策只是在低度数参与者之间重新分配规模,那么这些政策可能无效,因为这似乎会加剧潜在的网络连通性。

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