Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Jun;24(6):2272-2283. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14112. Epub 2018 Mar 26.
Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest.
研究已经测试了基于物种出现的模型预测是否可以预测种群丰度的空间格局。预测环境适宜性与种群丰度之间的关系在形状、强度和预测能力上有所不同。然而，很少有人关注不同模型在使用出现或丰度数据时的预测一致性，特别是在比较气候变化影响的指标时。在这里，我们使用生态位模型，该模型拟合了兰花蜂的存在-不存在和丰度数据，以预测气候变化对物种和集合水平分布模式的影响。此外，我们还评估了存在-不存在模型的预测是否可以作为丰度模式的替代。我们获得了巴西大西洋森林中兰花蜂（膜翅目：蜜蜂科： Euglossina）的地理参考丰度数据。采样方法包括用至少五种不同的芳香化合物吸引雄性兰花蜂，并使用昆虫网或诱饵陷阱收集个体。我们将丰度数据限制在通过类似标准采样协议获得的数据，以避免丰度估计的偏差。我们使用增强回归树来模拟生态位，并将其投影到六个气候模型和两个代表性浓度途径中。我们发现，当模型的输出为连续时，基于物种出现的模型可以作为种群丰度变化的替代物；而当输出离散化为二元预测时，结果则大不相同。我们发现未来丰度总体呈下降趋势，但仍保留了大量适宜的气候区。此外，获得气候适宜区的地理距离可能非常短，尽管存在很大的变化。物种丰富度和周转率的变化将集中在大西洋森林的西部和南部。我们的研究结果为正在进行的适宜性-丰度模型的争论提供了支持，并可用于支持大西洋森林的空间保护优先事项计划和物种分诊。
