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使用基于主体的模型探究日常交通对老年人抑郁的可能影响。

Examining the possible impact of daily transport on depression among older adults using an agent-based model.

机构信息

a School of Public Health , University of Memphis , Memphis , Tennessee , USA.

b Department of Health Management and Policy, Dornsife School of Public Health , Drexel University , Philadelphia , Pennsylvania , USA.

出版信息

Aging Ment Health. 2019 Jun;23(6):743-751. doi: 10.1080/13607863.2018.1450832. Epub 2018 Mar 15.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Daily transport may impact depression risk among older adults through several pathways including facilitating the ability to meet basic needs, enabling and promoting contact with other people and nature, and promoting physical activity (e.g. through active transportation such as walking or walking to public transit). Both daily transport and depression are influenced by the neighborhood environment. To provide insights into how transport interventions may affect depression in older adults, we developed a pilot agent-based model to explore the contribution of daily transport and neighborhood environment to older adults' depression in urban areas.

METHOD

The model includes about 18,500 older adults (i.e. agents) between the ages of 65 and 85 years old, living in a hypothetical city. The city has a grid space with a number of neighborhoods and locations. Key dynamic processes in the model include aging, daily transport use and feedbacks, and the development of depression. Key parameters were derived from US data sources. The model was validated using empirical studies.

RESULTS

An intervention that combines a decrease in bus fares, shorter bus waiting times, and more bus lines and stations is most effective at reducing depression. Lower income groups are likely to be more sensitive to the public transit-oriented intervention.

CONCLUSION

Preliminary results suggest that promoting public transit use may be a promising strategy to increase daily transport and decrease depression. Our results may have implications for transportation policies and interventions to prevent depression in older adults.

摘要

目的

日常交通出行可能通过多种途径影响老年人的抑郁风险,包括促进满足基本需求的能力、促进与他人和自然的接触以及促进身体活动(例如通过步行或步行到公共交通等积极交通方式)。日常交通和抑郁都受到邻里环境的影响。为了深入了解交通干预措施如何影响老年人的抑郁,我们开发了一个试点基于代理的模型,以探索日常交通和邻里环境对城市中老年人抑郁的影响。

方法

该模型包括约 18500 名年龄在 65 岁至 85 岁之间的老年人(即代理人),居住在一个假设的城市中。城市具有网格空间,其中包含许多社区和位置。模型中的关键动态过程包括衰老、日常交通使用和反馈以及抑郁的发展。关键参数来自美国数据源。该模型经过实证研究验证。

结果

一项综合降低公共汽车票价、缩短公共汽车等待时间以及增加公共汽车线路和车站的干预措施最能有效降低抑郁。低收入群体可能更容易受到公共交通导向干预的影响。

结论

初步结果表明,促进公共交通使用可能是增加日常交通和减少抑郁的有前途的策略。我们的研究结果可能对预防老年人抑郁的交通政策和干预措施具有启示意义。

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