Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, 464 Bearsden Road, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK.
Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, 464 Bearsden Road, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK; The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, EH25 9RG, UK.
Epidemics. 2018 Sep;24:34-42. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.004. Epub 2018 Mar 1.
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic zoonosis with major health and economic impact on the cattle industry. Despite extensive control measures in cattle and culling trials in wildlife, the reasons behind the expansion of areas with high incidence of bTB breakdowns in Great Britain remain unexplained. By balancing the importance of cattle movements and local transmission on the observed pattern of cattle outbreaks, we identify areas at elevated risk of infection from specific Mycobacterium bovis genotypes. We show that elevated-risk areas (ERAs) were historically more extensive than previously understood, and that cattle movements alone are insufficient for ERA spread, suggesting the involvement of other factors. For all genotypes, we find that, while the absolute risk of infection is higher in ERAs compared to areas with intermittent risk, the statistically significant risk factors are remarkably similar in both, suggesting that these risk factors can be used to identify incipient ERAs before this is indicated by elevated incidence alone. Our findings identify research priorities for understanding bTB dynamics, improving surveillance and guiding management to prevent further ERA expansion.
牛结核病（bTB）是一种慢性人畜共患病，对牛业的健康和经济造成重大影响。尽管在牛群中采取了广泛的控制措施，并对野生动物进行了扑杀试验，但英国高发病率 bTB 爆发地区不断扩大的原因仍未得到解释。通过平衡牛群流动和局部传播对观察到的牛群爆发模式的重要性，我们确定了具有特定牛分枝杆菌基因型感染高风险的区域。我们表明，高风险区域（ERAs）的历史范围比以前理解的要广泛，而且仅牛群流动不足以导致 ERA 传播，这表明存在其他因素的参与。对于所有基因型，我们发现，尽管与间歇性风险区域相比，ERAs 中的感染绝对风险更高，但在这两个区域中，统计学上显著的风险因素非常相似，这表明这些风险因素可用于在仅通过发病率升高来指示之前，识别初期的 ERA。我们的研究结果确定了理解 bTB 动态、改善监测和指导管理以防止 ERA 进一步扩大的研究重点。
