Cappai Stefano, Rolesu Sandro, Coccollone Annamaria, Laddomada Alberto, Loi Federica
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, Osservatorio Epidemiologico Veterinario Regionale, Via XX Settembre 9, 09129 Cagliari, Italy.
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, Via Duca degli Abruzzi 8, 07100 Sassari, Italy.
Prev Vet Med. 2018 Apr 1;152:1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.01.004. Epub 2018 Feb 1.
Despite the implementation of several eradication programmes, African swine fever (ASF), a viral disease in pigs caused by a DNA virus (ASFV), has been present in Sardinia (Italy) since 1978. Several studies have been carried out on the epidemiology of ASF in Sardinia, aimed at attaining a better understanding of the role of the risk factors related to ASFV persistence, but those studies did not address the social aspects involved. This work sought to bridge this gap, identifying the main social risk factors associated with ASF persistence. With this aim, this study takes into account not only the known "biological" risk factors identified in previous studies, but also the direct correlation between ASF persistence and well-known socio-economic aspects. The demographic characteristics, the Material Deprivation Index (IDM) and the non-compliance with the rules on ASF controls, including the traditional method of keeping free-range pigs has been evaluated. To assess the weight of each risk factor, data about pig farms, wild boar and social factors in Sardinia, were analysed using the Negative Binomial Regression Model. The main outcome was the number of domestic pig outbreaks occurring in Sardinian during 2011-2016. The effect in terms of the odds ratio (OR) was calculated to each factor included. The biological risk factors identified covered the number of animals (OR = 3.33, p < .0001, by 100 animals) and farms (OR = 1.07, p = .006, by 10 farms), the animal movements (OR = 1.64, p = .001, by 10 movements), the presence of illegal pigs (OR = 6.87, p < .0001) and the ASFV prevalence in wild boars (OR = 1.30, p = .001). Among the socio-economic factors, the compliance with control measures (OR = 0.90, p < .0001), the human population increasing by 1000 people (OR = 0.89, p < .0001), the growing age of the farmers (OR = 0.66, p = .025, by 5 years) and non-relationships with other farms (OR = 0.85, p < .001), decreased the ASF risk. The deprived condition (i.e. cultural and material deprivation, lack of resources and overcrowding index) increases the risk of about four times, as the low educational level (OR = 3.97, p = .002). Having highlighted the important role of social conditions, this risk definition allows understanding the Sardinian situation and may be useful to decision-makers to draft specific control strategies against this disease in the island, which should take into account local risk factors.
尽管实施了多项根除计划，但自1978年以来，由DNA病毒（非洲猪瘟病毒，ASFV）引起的猪病毒性疾病——非洲猪瘟（ASF）一直存在于意大利的撒丁岛。针对撒丁岛非洲猪瘟的流行病学开展了多项研究，旨在更好地了解与非洲猪瘟病毒持续存在相关的风险因素的作用，但这些研究未涉及其中的社会因素。这项工作试图填补这一空白，确定与非洲猪瘟持续存在相关的主要社会风险因素。为此，本研究不仅考虑了先前研究中确定的已知“生物学”风险因素，还考虑了非洲猪瘟持续存在与知名社会经济因素之间的直接关联。评估了人口特征、物质匮乏指数（IDM）以及对非洲猪瘟防控规则的不遵守情况，包括传统的散养猪饲养方式。为评估每个风险因素的权重，使用负二项回归模型分析了撒丁岛猪场、野猪和社会因素的数据。主要结果是2011年至2016年期间撒丁岛发生的家猪疫情数量。计算了纳入的每个因素的优势比（OR）效应。确定的生物学风险因素包括动物数量（每增加100头动物，OR = 3.33，p < 0.0001）、猪场数量（每增加10个猪场），OR = 1.07 p = 0.006）、动物移动情况（每增加10次移动，OR = 1.64，p = 0.001）、非法猪的存在（OR = 6.87，p < 0.0001）以及野猪中非洲猪瘟病毒的流行率（OR = 1.30，p = 0.001）。在社会经济因素中，遵守控制措施（OR = 0.90，p < 0.0001）、人口增加1000人（OR = 0.89，p < 0.0001）、农民年龄增长（每增加5岁，OR = 0.66，p = 0.025）以及与其他猪场无关联（OR = 0.85，p < 0.001）会降低非洲猪瘟风险。贫困状况（即文化和物质匮乏、资源短缺和拥挤指数）使风险增加约四倍，低教育水平也是如此（OR = 3.97，p = 0.002）。突出了社会条件的重要作用后，这种风险定义有助于了解撒丁岛的情况，可能有助于决策者制定针对该岛这种疾病的具体控制策略，其中应考虑当地风险因素。
