Department of Tourism Administration, Boğaziçi University, 34342, Istanbul, Türkiye.
Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, 34342, Istanbul, Türkiye.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Sep;68(9):1773-1787. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02704-7. Epub 2024 Jun 5.
Climate change affects the comfort level of tourists visiting coastal areas. Researching these impacts is important for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change and for developing effective adaptation solutions. Considering this fact, the study derived the Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Coast, HCI: Urban, and HCI: Combined) in the Mediterranean coastal provinces of Türkiye from 1976 to 2020. Utilizing the derived indices, the effects of climate-related holiday comfort on the number of tourist arrivals as well as on overnight stays between 1976 and 2020 were examined by panel data analysis. The study examined how comfort patterns could change during the period 2026-2050 under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. It was detected that the comfort level significantly and positively affects the number of arrivals and overnight stays of tourists. Besides, comfort levels were found to deteriorate in the period 2026-2050 compared to the reference period, 1976-2020. As the comfort conditions get worse, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays is expected to decline in the future. It is envisaged that the results of the study can be useful for tourists, tourism professionals, operators, other stakeholders, and policymakers.
气候变化影响着前往沿海地区旅游的游客的舒适度。研究这些影响对于更全面地了解气候变化以及制定有效的适应解决方案非常重要。有鉴于此，本研究利用 1976 年至 2020 年期间土耳其地中海沿海省份的数据，推导出了假日气候指数（HCI：沿海、HCI：城市和 HCI：综合）。利用推导出的指数，本研究通过面板数据分析，考察了气候相关假日舒适度对 1976 年至 2020 年期间游客人数和过夜住宿的影响。本研究还考察了在悲观的 RCP8.5 情景下，2026 年至 2050 年期间舒适模式可能发生的变化。研究结果表明，舒适度显著且积极地影响着游客的到达人数和过夜住宿。此外，与参考期 1976 年至 2020 年相比，在 2026 年至 2050 年期间，舒适度水平有所下降。随着舒适条件的恶化，未来游客的到达人数和过夜住宿预计将减少。预计该研究的结果对游客、旅游专业人士、运营商、其他利益相关者和政策制定者都将具有参考价值。
