Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100, Murcia, Spain.
Laboratório Associado IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal.
Nat Commun. 2018 Apr 3;9(1):1304. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-03527-y.
Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO, CH, and NO atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century, which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.
大气温室气体（GHG）浓度的变化在运行区域气候模型（RCM）时可能不会被视为外部强迫因素；至少，这是一种不受监管、未记录在案的做法。在这里，我们研究了考虑 CO、CH 和 NO 大气浓度不断上升对最近过去和不久的将来由最先进的欧洲区域气候模式模拟的近地表气温（TAS）趋势的影响，这一影响迄今为止尚未被探讨。结果表明，TAS 趋势受到 1-2 K 世纪的显著影响，在全球升温 1.5°C 的情况下，TAS 区域预测的影响可达 1 K，这对最高和最低温度的预测也有类似的影响。在某些情况下，这些差异涉及两倍信号，进一步要求谨慎重新考虑将 GHG 浓度作为一种不断演变的外部强迫因素纳入 RCM 设定，为了研究的可重复性和可靠性，这应该在文献中明确记录。
