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热带遥相关引发的长达一个世纪的西南极积雪变化

Century-long West Antarctic snow accumulation changes induced by tropical teleconnections.

作者信息

Man Kai, Luterbacher Jürg, Holland David M, Yuan Naiming, Geng Lei, Wang Yetang, Liu Yonggang, Shi Guitao, Hou Yurong, Cai Wenju, Li Xichen

机构信息

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Sci Adv. 2025 Jan 31;11(5):eadr2821. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adr2821. Epub 2025 Jan 29.

Abstract

Ice core measurements reveal dipole-like snow accumulation trends over West Antarctica throughout the 20th century, with an increase of >2000 billion metric tons over the Antarctic Peninsula and Ellsworth Land but a decrease of ~500 billion metric tons over Marie Byrd Land. Although atmospheric teleconnections were frequently revealed, linking variability between tropics and higher latitudes on interannual and decadal timescales, centennial-scale teleconnection is absent from literature. Here, using statistical analysis and numerical experiments, we reveal that changes of tropical oceans throughout the 20th century drive the long-term Antarctic snowfall trend. A pronounced warming over the tropical Atlantic and a moderate cooling over the equatorial Pacific have driven an adjustment of moisture transport and thus snowfall pattern in West Antarctica. Our study reveals a centennial tropical-polar teleconnection, producing long-term trends with opposing changes across the regions. Remote forcing from the tropics increased the mass accumulation over Antarctica, balanced rapid iceshelf thinning in recent decades, contributing to global sea-level changes.

摘要

冰芯测量揭示了整个20世纪南极洲西部类似偶极子的积雪趋势,南极半岛和埃尔斯沃思地的积雪增加超过20000亿吨,但玛丽·伯德地的积雪减少了约5000亿吨。尽管经常揭示出大气遥相关,即在年际和年代际时间尺度上连接热带和高纬度地区之间的变率,但文献中没有百年尺度的遥相关。在这里,通过统计分析和数值实验,我们揭示了20世纪热带海洋的变化驱动了南极长期降雪趋势。热带大西洋的显著变暖以及赤道太平洋的适度变冷推动了水汽输送的调整,进而影响了南极洲西部的降雪模式。我们的研究揭示了一种百年尺度的热带-极地遥相关,在各区域产生了相反变化的长期趋势。来自热带的远程强迫增加了南极洲的物质积累,平衡了近几十年来冰架的快速变薄,对全球海平面变化产生了影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bd0d/11777206/2d8feb67b7f6/sciadv.adr2821-f1.jpg

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