College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China.
School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(24):30702-30713. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12948-0. Epub 2021 Feb 16.
Carbon dioxide emission and climatic variation have a detrimental influence on the atmosphere as well as on agriculture production. The key aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of carbon dioxide emission on livestock, cereal crops production, rainfall and temperature in China by utilizing the vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test for the period 1988-2017. Variables stationarity was verified by using ADF, P-P and KPSS unit root tests. The outcomes through long-run dynamics exposed that agriculture value added and rainfall have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emission, while cereal crops production, livestock production and temperature have an adverse interaction with carbon dioxide emission. Similarly, the results of the short-run analysis also demonstrate that agriculture value added, cereal crops production, livestock production, rainfall and temperature have a significant influence on carbon dioxide emission with their p-values (0.0488), (0.0885), (0.0263), (0.0096) and (0.5141) respectively. Furthermore, the Granger causality test outcomes also exposed a unidirectional linkage amid the variables. In order to improve agricultural productivity, the Chinese government should take potential steps to minimize the carbon dioxide emission from various industries that trigger climate change.
二氧化碳排放和气候变化对大气以及农业生产都有不利影响。本研究的主要目的是利用向量自回归模型和格兰杰因果检验，研究 1988-2017 年期间中国二氧化碳排放对畜牧业、粮食作物生产、降雨和温度的影响。通过 ADF、P-P 和 KPSS 单位根检验验证了变量的平稳性。通过长期动态研究得出的结果表明，农业增加值和降雨量对二氧化碳排放有积极影响，而粮食作物生产、畜牧业生产和温度与二氧化碳排放呈负相关。同样，短期分析的结果也表明，农业增加值、粮食作物生产、畜牧业生产、降雨量和温度对二氧化碳排放有显著影响，其 p 值分别为 0.0488、0.0885、0.0263、0.0096 和 0.5141。此外，格兰杰因果检验结果还表明，这些变量之间存在单向关联。为了提高农业生产力，中国政府应采取潜在措施，尽量减少引发气候变化的各行业的二氧化碳排放。
