Riquelme Carlos, Estay Sergio A, López Rodrigo, Pastore Hernán, Soto-Gamboa Mauricio, Corti Paulo
Programa de Magíster en Ecología Aplicada, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
Laboratorio de Manejo y Conservación de Vida Silvestre, Instituto de Ciencia Animal y Programa de Investigación Aplicada en Fauna Silvestre, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
PeerJ. 2018 Jul 12;6:e5222. doi: 10.7717/peerj.5222. eCollection 2018.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.
To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.
Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.
Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.
气候变化是生物多样性面临的最大威胁之一，促使物种改变其分布范围，并使现有的保护区变得不足。因此，为了调整保护和管理计划，有必要估计气候变化下的物种分布和潜在变化；对于濒危物种来说尤其如此。这个问题的一个例子是南美泽鹿（huemul），一种来自安第斯山脉南部的特有濒危鹿种，个体数量不足2000只。它分布在智利和阿根廷沿2000公里纬度梯度的零散种群中。多种威胁已将其分布范围缩小至不到以前范围的50%。
为了估计其潜在分布和保护区的有效性，我们使用了整个分布范围内的2813个南美泽鹿出现点，以及来自Worldclim的19个生物气候层和海拔信息，构建了一个物种分布模型。利用针对代表两种碳排放典型浓度路径（RCP）——RCP4.5和RCP6.0的情景估计的五种不同全球气候模型，预测了其2050年和2070年的当前分布。
根据当前南美泽鹿的栖息地变量，我们估计有91617平方公里的适宜栖息地。在未来气候变化情景中，由于海拔和纬度变化，适宜栖息地有所减少 根据RCP4.5和RCP6.0，2050年的未来预测显示减少了59.86 - 60.26%，2070年减少了58.57 - 64.34%。在气候变化情景下，保护区仅覆盖了当前分布的36.18%，2050年为38.57 - 34.94%，2070年为30.79 - 31.94%。
对当前和未来南美泽鹿分布进行建模应有助于确定重点保护区域，以便集中精力和资金，特别是那些没有官方保护的区域。通过这种方式，我们可以改善受气候变化严重影响地区的管理，以帮助确保这种鹿以及全球类似情况下的其他物种的存续。
