MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nature. 2018 Jul;559(7715):490-497. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0318-5. Epub 2018 Jul 25.
Mosquito-borne diseases remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality across the tropical regions. Despite much progress in the control of malaria, malaria-associated morbidity remains high, whereas arboviruses-most notably dengue-are responsible for a rising burden of disease, even in middle-income countries that have almost completely eliminated malaria. Here I discuss how new interventions offer the promise of considerable future reductions in disease burden. However, I emphasize that intervention programmes need to be underpinned by rigorous trials and quantitative epidemiological analyses. Such analyses suggest that the long-term goal of elimination is more feasible for dengue than for malaria, even if malaria elimination would offer greater overall health benefit to the public.
蚊媒疾病仍然是热带地区发病率和死亡率的主要原因。尽管在疟疾控制方面取得了很大进展,但疟疾相关发病率仍然很高,而虫媒病毒——尤其是登革热——正在导致疾病负担不断增加,即使在几乎完全消除疟疾的中等收入国家也是如此。在这里,我讨论了新的干预措施如何有望在未来大幅降低疾病负担。然而,我强调干预计划需要有严格的试验和定量流行病学分析的支持。此类分析表明,即使消除疟疾能给公众带来更大的整体健康效益,消除登革热的长期目标也比消除疟疾更可行。