Pinilla Jaime, López-Valcárcel Beatriz G, Negrín Miguel A
Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Management, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.
Health Econ Policy Law. 2019 Oct;14(4):536-552. doi: 10.1017/S1744133118000270. Epub 2018 Jul 30.
In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law that banned smoking in bars and restaurants, with exceptions depending on the floor space of the premises. In January 2011, further legislation in this area was adopted, removing these exceptions. We analyse the effect produced on cigarette sales by these two bans. We approach this problem using an interrupted time series analysis while accounting for the potential effects of autocorrelation and seasonality. The data source used was the official data on legal sales of tobacco in Spain, from January 2000 to December 2015 (excluding the Canary Islands and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla). As confounder variables, we use the log-transformed average prices for manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes (or the average minimum excise tax as a proxy), and log-transformed real-household disposable income. The implementation of a total smoke-free ban in Spain was associated with an immediate reduction in cigarette sales between 9% to 11%. In contrast, in the period immediately following the partial ban, no such reduction was detected, beyond the trend already present. Our results indicate that, in Spain, partial bans on smoking in public places failed, and that only a total tobacco ban worked.
2006年1月，西班牙政府颁布了一项烟草控制法，禁止在酒吧和餐馆吸烟，但根据经营场所的建筑面积有所例外。2011年1月，该领域进一步立法，取消了这些例外情况。我们分析了这两项禁令对香烟销售产生的影响。我们采用中断时间序列分析来处理这个问题，同时考虑自相关和季节性的潜在影响。所使用的数据源是2000年1月至2015年12月西班牙烟草合法销售的官方数据（不包括加那利群岛以及休达和梅利利亚自治市）。作为混杂变量，我们使用经对数变换的机制卷烟和手卷烟平均价格（或作为替代的平均最低消费税），以及经对数变换的实际家庭可支配收入。西班牙全面无烟禁令的实施与香烟销量立即下降9%至11%相关。相比之下，在部分禁令实施后的紧接着时期，除了已有的趋势外，未检测到此类下降。我们的结果表明，在西班牙，公共场所部分吸烟禁令失败了，只有全面烟草禁令起了作用。
