The National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
Office of Health Protection, Australian Government Department of Health, Canberra, Australia.
Bull World Health Organ. 2018 Aug 1;96(8):558-567. doi: 10.2471/BLT.18.211508. Epub 2018 Jun 25.
To implement the World Health Organization's pandemic influenza severity assessment tool in Australia, using multiple sources of data to establish thresholds and measure influenza severity indicators.
We used data from four reliable sources: sentinel general practitioner surveillance, hospital surveillance, a public health hotline and an influenza-like illness survey system. We measured three influenza severity indicators (transmissibility, impact and disease seriousness) defined using pandemic influenza severity assessment guidelines. We used the moving epidemic method and a seriousness indicator-specific method to set thresholds for indicator parameters using 2012-2016 data. We then applied the thresholds to data from the 2017 influenza season.
We were able to measure and produce thresholds for each severity indicator. At least one laboratory-confirmed influenza parameter was used to measure each indicator. When thresholds were applied to the 2017 season, there was good agreement across all data sources in measuring activity for each indicator. The season was characterized as having high transmissibility and extraordinary impact. Seriousness was characterized as moderate overall and in all age groups except those aged ≥ 65 years for whom it was high. This matched the description of the season produced by the Australian national influenza surveillance committee, based on expert opinion and historical ranges.
The pandemic influenza severity assessment and moving epidemic method provide a robust and flexible method to enable an evidence-based assessment of seasonal influenza severity across diverse data sources. This is useful for national assessment and will contribute to global monitoring and response to circulating influenza with pandemic potential.
在澳大利亚实施世界卫生组织的大流行性流感严重程度评估工具，利用多种数据源确定阈值并衡量流感严重程度指标。
我们使用了来自四个可靠来源的数据：全科医生监测哨点、医院监测、公共卫生热线和流感样疾病监测系统。我们使用大流行性流感严重程度评估指南中定义的三种流感严重程度指标（传染性、影响和疾病严重程度）进行了衡量。我们使用移动流行方法和严重性指标特定方法，使用 2012-2016 年的数据为指标参数设置阈值。然后，我们将这些阈值应用于 2017 年流感季节的数据。
我们能够衡量并为每个严重程度指标设置阈值。每个指标都使用至少一个实验室确诊的流感参数进行衡量。当将阈值应用于 2017 年季节时，所有数据源在衡量每个指标的活动方面都具有良好的一致性。该季节的传染性很强，影响很大。总体而言，严重程度适中，除≥65 岁年龄组外，所有年龄组均为高。这与澳大利亚国家流感监测委员会根据专家意见和历史范围对该季节的描述相符。
大流行性流感严重程度评估和移动流行方法为使用多种数据源对季节性流感严重程度进行基于证据的评估提供了一种强大而灵活的方法。这对于国家评估很有用，并将有助于对具有大流行潜力的流感进行全球监测和应对。
