Jung Jae Hun, Park Anna, Jung Il Hyo
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2018 Aug 15;2018:3738584. doi: 10.1155/2018/3738584. eCollection 2018.
Recently, the role of the electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) in a way to reduce smoking is increasing. E-cigarettes are a device that delivers only the nicotine, and its use is considered less harmful to health compared with tobacco cigarettes. Smokers frequently make use of e-cigarettes as one of the nonsmoking aid devices. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the effect of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation. The stability and the bifurcation of the model have been discussed. The parameter estimations from the observed data are drawn, and using the parameters, a reasonable smoking model has been designed. Moreover, by considering the sensitivity results depending on the basic reproduction number , the effective strategies that reduce the smokers are investigated. Numerical simulations of the model show that e-cigarettes may somewhat diminish the numbers of smokers, but it does not reduce the number of quitters ultimately.
最近，电子烟在减少吸烟方面的作用日益增强。电子烟是一种仅输送尼古丁的装置，与烟草香烟相比，其使用被认为对健康危害较小。吸烟者经常将电子烟作为戒烟辅助设备之一。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个数学模型来分析电子烟对戒烟的影响。讨论了该模型的稳定性和分岔情况。根据观测数据进行了参数估计，并利用这些参数设计了一个合理的吸烟模型。此外，通过考虑依赖于基本再生数的敏感性结果，研究了减少吸烟者数量的有效策略。该模型的数值模拟表明，电子烟可能会在一定程度上减少吸烟者的数量，但最终并不能减少戒烟者的数量。
