Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
BlueDot, Toronto, Canada.
J Travel Med. 2018 Jan 1;25(1). doi: 10.1093/jtm/tay077.
BACKGROUND: The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population. METHODS: We synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities. RESULTS: Outbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants.
背景:委内瑞拉目前的经济和政治危机导致其医疗体系崩溃,曾被控制或消灭的传染病死灰复燃。此外,由于这场危机,委内瑞拉的国际移民大量外逃。我们旨在描述委内瑞拉国民面临的传染病风险,并评估移民人口的国际流动模式。
方法:我们综合了委内瑞拉近期传染病事件和委内瑞拉国际移民的相关数据,以及移民人口目前的居住国信息。我们利用国际航空运输协会的旅客行程数据,评估了委内瑞拉国际航班出行人数随时间的变化趋势。我们使用了两种无参数移动性模型,即辐射模型和阻抗模型,来估计委内瑞拉各城市与其他拉美和加勒比主要城市之间的预期人口流动。
结果:委内瑞拉各地和其他地区都报告了麻疹、白喉和疟疾的爆发,艾滋病毒和结核病等其他疾病也再度出现。由于这场危机,移民模式发生了明显变化,尽管出国旅客总数下降,但居住在国外的委内瑞拉国民人数有所增加。这两种模型预测的流动模式不同,但都强调了哥伦比亚城市作为移民目的地的重要性,也表明一些移民预计会长途跋涉。尽管移民可能在国际上长途跋涉,但与委内瑞拉移民相关的疫情主要发生在与委内瑞拉接壤的国家。
结论:鉴于人类流动与传染病传播之间的关联,了解国际移民的去向至关重要。在数据有限的情况下,简单的模型可用于深入了解人口流动情况,并有助于确定可能接收大量移民的地区。
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