Algeo Timothy P, Slate Dennis, Caron Rosemary M, Atwood Todd, Recuenco Sergio, Ducey Mark J, Chipman Richard B, Palace Michael
USDA, APHIS, Wildlife Services, National Rabies Management Program, Concord, NH 03301, USA.
Department of Health Management and Policy, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2017 Aug 28;2(3):44. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed2030044.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Wildlife Services National Rabies Management Program has conducted cooperative oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programs since 1997. Understanding the eco-epidemiology of raccoon () variant rabies (raccoon rabies) is critical to successful management. Pine ( spp.)-dominated landscapes generally support low relative raccoon densities that may inhibit rabies spread. However, confounding landscape features, such as wetlands and human development, represent potentially elevated risk corridors for rabies spread, possibly imperiling enhanced rabies surveillance and ORV planning. Raccoon habitat suitability in pine-dominated landscapes in Massachusetts, Florida, and Alabama was modeled by the maximum entropy (Maxent) procedure using raccoon presence, and landscape and environmental data. Replicated ( = 100/state) bootstrapped Maxent models based on raccoon sampling locations from 2012⁻2014 indicated that soil type was the most influential variable in Alabama (permutation importance PI = 38.3), which, based on its relation to landcover type and resource distribution and abundance, was unsurprising. Precipitation (PI = 46.9) and temperature (PI = 52.1) were the most important variables in Massachusetts and Florida, but these possibly spurious results require further investigation. The Alabama Maxent probability surface map was ingested into Circuitscape for conductance visualizations of potential areas of habitat connectivity. Incorporating these and future results into raccoon rabies containment and elimination strategies could result in significant cost-savings for rabies management here and elsewhere.
自1997年以来，美国农业部（USDA）动植物卫生检验局（APHIS）野生动物服务部国家狂犬病管理项目一直在开展合作性口服狂犬病疫苗接种（ORV）项目。了解浣熊变种狂犬病（浣熊狂犬病）的生态流行病学对于成功管理至关重要。以松树（ spp.）为主的景观通常支持相对较低的浣熊密度，这可能会抑制狂犬病的传播。然而，诸如湿地和人类开发等混杂的景观特征代表了狂犬病传播的潜在高风险通道，可能危及加强狂犬病监测和ORV规划。利用浣熊的存在情况以及景观和环境数据，通过最大熵（Maxent）程序对马萨诸塞州、佛罗里达州和阿拉巴马州以松树为主的景观中浣熊的栖息地适宜性进行了建模。基于2012 - 2014年浣熊采样地点的重复（每个州 = 100）自展Maxent模型表明，土壤类型是阿拉巴马州最具影响力的变量（置换重要性PI = 38.3），基于其与土地覆盖类型以及资源分布和丰度的关系，这并不令人意外。降水量（PI = 46.9）和温度（PI = 52.1）是马萨诸塞州和佛罗里达州最重要的变量，但这些可能虚假的结果需要进一步调查。阿拉巴马州的Maxent概率表面图被导入到Circuitscape中，以可视化潜在栖息地连通区域的电导情况。将这些以及未来的结果纳入浣熊狂犬病控制和消除策略中，可能会为本地及其他地区的狂犬病管理带来显著的成本节约。
