Henan Cancer Research and Control Office, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan Tumor Hospital, Zhengzhou, 450008, China.
Linzhou Cancer Registry, Linzhou Cancer Hospital, Linzhou, 456500, China.
BMC Cancer. 2018 Oct 3;18(1):949. doi: 10.1186/s12885-018-4867-7.
Survival of esophageal cancer in Linzhou was seen to increase over the past few decades and is higher than the average level of China due to the implementation of comprehensive prevention and control measures. In population-based studies, relative survival is a common index to approximate disease-specific survival. However, the cure fraction maybe great interest to patients and physicians. This study aimed to investigate the cure fraction of esophageal cancer in Linzou city during 2003-2012 with a cure model.
We carried out a population-based study of 8067 esophageal cancer patients in the Linzhou city during 2003-2012. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate cure proportions and median survival times of uncured by year of diagnosed and age. In each model, an interaction between calendar year and age were included. All variables in the model were included both as constant and time-varying effects.
The 5-year relative survival rate was increased in every age group from 2003 to 2012. The huge increase in the cure proportion was observed in each age group. At the year of 2011-2012, 79.8%, 58.0%, 123.4% and 162.7% improvements of cure proportion were seen in age group 19-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-99 years compared with year of 2003-2004. Meanwhile, survival of 'uncured' patients changed little in all age group.
The improvement of survival in Linzhou city during 2003-2012 was mainly due to an increasing cure proportion. Huge improvement of cure fraction within short period is likely due to the organized screening of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city.
过去几十年，林州的食管癌生存率有所提高，由于实施了综合防控措施，其生存率高于中国平均水平。在基于人群的研究中，相对生存率是一种常用的近似疾病特异性生存率的指标。然而，治愈分数可能对患者和医生更有意义。本研究旨在采用治愈模型探讨 2003-2012 年林州市食管癌的治愈分数。
我们对 2003-2012 年林州市 8067 例食管癌患者进行了一项基于人群的研究。采用灵活参数治愈模型估计未治愈患者的治愈比例和中位生存时间，并按诊断年份和年龄进行分层。在每个模型中，均纳入了日历年份和年龄之间的交互作用。模型中的所有变量均同时作为常数和时变效应纳入。
2003 年至 2012 年，各年龄组的 5 年相对生存率均有所提高。各年龄组的治愈比例均有大幅提高。在 2011-2012 年，与 2003-2004 年相比，年龄组 19-49、50-59、60-69 和 70-99 岁的治愈比例分别提高了 79.8%、58.0%、123.4%和 162.7%。同时，所有年龄组的“未治愈”患者的生存情况变化不大。
2003-2012 年林州市生存率的提高主要归因于治愈比例的增加。在短时间内治愈分数的大幅提高可能是由于林州市对食管癌的有组织筛查。
