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时间距离的消解会增加冒险行为:实验证据。

The dissolution of temporal distance increases risk-taking: experimental evidence.

机构信息

Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland.

Department of International Finance, Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poznań, Poland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2018 Nov 8;8(1):16565. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-34780-2.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-34780-2
PMID:30409999
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6224535/
Abstract

Earlier research shows that delaying the realization of a lottery (temporal distance) increases risk tolerance. Presumably, this happens because temporal distance protects one from encountering the negative emotions produced when facing risk. However, no study has tested whether people that made a choice in the presence of temporal distance would actually change their decision later on (in the absence of temporal distance), towards the safer choice. To test this, 137 participants were subject to actual temporal distance, consisting of a four-week waiting period. To explore how each participant behaved "in the heat of the moment" (in the absence of temporal distance), we assessed their electrodermal activity and analysed self-description measures of susceptibility to affect. Participants had to choose between 40 lottery pairs (they could win up to the equivalent of about $400 US; the expected payout for each participant was about $12). Results showed that, contrary to expectations, participants tended to choose riskier lotteries after the waiting period. The results of an additional experiment suggest that this is not the result of prior exposure to the same set of lotteries, however, interestingly, an exploratory analysis showed that the main effect was driven by the behaviour of male participants. We discuss possible explanations for our surprising main finding and its implications for studies on temporal distance.

摘要

早期研究表明,延迟彩票兑现(时间距离)会增加风险承受能力。据推测,这是因为时间距离可以保护人们免受面对风险时产生的负面情绪的影响。然而,尚无研究测试过在存在时间距离的情况下做出选择的人是否会在以后(没有时间距离)改变他们的决定,转而选择更安全的选择。为了验证这一点,137 名参与者经历了实际的时间距离,包括四周的等待期。为了探究每个参与者在“激情时刻”(没有时间距离)的行为如何,我们评估了他们的皮肤电活动,并分析了易感性的自我描述措施。参与者必须在 40 对彩票中做出选择(他们最多可以赢得相当于约 400 美元的奖金;每个参与者的预期收益约为 12 美元)。结果表明,与预期相反,参与者在等待期后往往会选择风险更高的彩票。额外实验的结果表明,这不是先前接触同一组彩票的结果,然而,有趣的是,一项探索性分析表明,主要影响是由男性参与者的行为驱动的。我们讨论了对我们令人惊讶的主要发现的可能解释及其对时间距离研究的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/e24e7964ab0b/41598_2018_34780_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/8910cc5df5a3/41598_2018_34780_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/8263a6808e79/41598_2018_34780_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/e24e7964ab0b/41598_2018_34780_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/8910cc5df5a3/41598_2018_34780_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/8263a6808e79/41598_2018_34780_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce2e/6224535/e24e7964ab0b/41598_2018_34780_Fig3_HTML.jpg

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