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选定新兴经济体能源使用与碳排放的因果关系——面板模型方法。

Causal correlation between energy use and carbon emissions in selected emerging economies-panel model approach.

机构信息

School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, People's Republic of China.

Accountancy Department, Kumasi Technical University, Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Mar;26(8):7896-7912. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04140-2. Epub 2019 Jan 25.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-019-04140-2
PMID:30684181
Abstract

Fossil fuels used in energy mix continues to dictate world heat usage. Demand for heat is considered as substantial contributor to carbon emissions and energy-related emissions equivalent to 12.5 Gt of carbon emissions. Data on heat is limited and therefore, a study on the causal correlation between energy use and emissions would provide policy guidance on how to decarbonize the heat sector to achieve Paris's Greenhouse Effect Treaty. Most empirical works aggregated energy consumption and ignore spatial dependence and heterogeneity in a panel dataset. Our study, however, disaggregated energy into renewable and non-renewable to find their distinct influence on emissions, which were tested for spatial dependence and heterogeneity and applied potential emissions as environmental impact. Using FGLS and PCSE estimators for the period 1971-2013, our findings revealed that the increase in renewable energy use and industrialization improves the ecological structure of emerging economies while the increase in population, economic expansion, and non-renewable energy use increases the carbon stock. We accordingly, investigated causation direction with pooled mean group estimator. Rising economic power states therefore encourage to ensure energy efficiency and replace fuel use with renewable source for heating to reduce carbon stock.

摘要

能源结构中使用的化石燃料继续主导着世界的热量使用。热量需求被认为是碳排放和与能源相关的排放的主要贡献者,相当于 125 亿吨的碳排放。关于热量的数据有限,因此,关于能源使用与排放之间因果关系的研究将为如何实现《巴黎气候变化协定》的目标,使供热部门脱碳提供政策指导。大多数实证研究将能源消费进行了汇总,而忽略了面板数据集中的空间依赖性和异质性。然而,我们的研究将能源分解为可再生能源和不可再生能源,以发现它们对排放的不同影响,并对空间依赖性和异质性进行了测试,并将潜在排放作为环境影响进行了应用。我们使用 FGLS 和 PCSE 估计器对 1971 年至 2013 年期间进行了研究,研究结果表明,可再生能源使用的增加和工业化的发展改善了新兴经济体的生态结构,而人口增长、经济扩张和不可再生能源使用的增加则增加了碳储量。因此,我们使用了平均组估计器进行了因果关系方向的调查。因此,经济实力上升的国家应该鼓励提高能源效率,并将燃料用于可再生能源,以减少碳储量。

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