School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand.
Room CO 131, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Cotton Building, Kelburn Parade, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Aug;26(23):23937-23957. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-05734-6. Epub 2019 Jun 20.
The transport sector is the fastest growing greenhouse gas-emitting sector in the world and it is also a major source of emissions in New Zealand. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road transport increased by 84.3% between 1990 and 2016. This increase in GHG emissions was the highest among the different energy sub-sectors of New Zealand. Increasing energy consumption and GHG emissions are due to the gradual increase in population, car-dependent low-density development, lack of integrated public transport networks, inappropriate policy interventions and so on. These factors are making it difficult to reduce emissions from this sector. This study investigates (i) major drivers of transport sector emissions, including how drivers differ from those affecting other developed countries; (ii) a mitigation policy roadmap to achieve future emissions reduction targets; and (iii) mitigation policy initiatives by the government, and policy gaps. To identify the key drivers from a set of drivers, this study uses a vector error correction model (VECM). The Granger causality test reveals that the fuel economy of the New Zealand passenger vehicle fleet has a significant causal relationship with transport emissions. Introduction of a number of policies such as a feebate scheme and/or a high minimum fuel economy standard could effectively alter this causal relationship in the short term, along with other measures such as urban planning changes for medium-term impact. This study aims to help policy makers identify the most tractable factors driving transport emissions and alternative policy options suitable for emissions mitigation.
交通部门是世界上温室气体排放增长最快的部门，也是新西兰的主要排放源之一。1990 年至 2016 年间，道路交通的温室气体排放量增长了 84.3%。这一增长在新西兰不同能源子部门中是最高的。温室气体排放量的增加是由于人口逐渐增加、依赖汽车的低密度发展、缺乏综合公共交通网络、政策干预不当等原因造成的。这些因素使得该部门难以实现减排目标。本研究调查了（i）交通部门排放的主要驱动因素，包括驾驶员与影响其他发达国家的因素有何不同；（ii）实现未来减排目标的缓解政策路线图；（iii）政府的缓解政策举措和政策差距。为了从一组驱动因素中确定关键驱动因素，本研究使用了向量误差修正模型（VECM）。格兰杰因果关系检验表明，新西兰乘用车车队的燃油经济性与交通排放之间存在显著的因果关系。引入一些政策，如收费方案和/或高最低燃油经济性标准，可以在短期内有效改变这种因果关系，同时还可以采取其他措施，如城市规划变化，以产生中期影响。本研究旨在帮助政策制定者确定推动交通排放的最可行因素和适合减排的替代政策选择。
