London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Clin Infect Dis. 2019 Aug 30;69(6):1071-1078. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciz060.
We sought datasets with granular age distributions of rotavirus-positive disease presentations among children <5 years of age, before the introduction of rotavirus vaccines. We identified 117 datasets and fit parametric age distributions to each country dataset and mortality stratum. We calculated the median age and the cumulative proportion of rotavirus gastroenteritis events expected to occur at ages between birth and 5.0 years. The median age of rotavirus-positive hospital admissions was 38 weeks (interquartile range [IQR], 25-58 weeks) in countries with very high child mortality and 65 weeks (IQR, 40-107 weeks) in countries with very low or low child mortality. In countries with very high child mortality, 69% of rotavirus-positive admissions in children <5 years of age were in the first year of life, with 3% by 10 weeks, 8% by 15 weeks, and 27% by 26 weeks. This information is critical for assessing the potential benefits of alternative rotavirus vaccination schedules in different countries and for monitoring program impact.
我们寻找了在轮状病毒疫苗引入之前，有<5 岁儿童轮状病毒阳性疾病表现的详细年龄分布的数据集。我们确定了 117 个数据集，并为每个国家数据集和死亡率分层拟合了参数化年龄分布。我们计算了预期在出生至 5.0 岁之间发生的轮状病毒胃肠炎事件的中位数年龄和累积比例。在儿童死亡率非常高的国家，轮状病毒阳性住院的中位数年龄为 38 周（四分位距[IQR]，25-58 周），在儿童死亡率非常低或低的国家，中位数年龄为 65 周（IQR，40-107 周）。在儿童死亡率非常高的国家，<5 岁的轮状病毒阳性住院患儿中有 69%发生在生命的第一年，10 周时有 3%，15 周时有 8%，26 周时有 27%。这些信息对于评估不同国家替代轮状病毒疫苗接种时间表的潜在收益以及监测计划的影响至关重要。
