Milne G M, Graham J, Allen A, Lahuerta-Marin A, McCormick C, Presho E, Skuce R, Byrne A W
Veterinary Sciences Division, Agri-food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI), 12 Stoney Road, Stormont, Belfast BT4 3SD, UK.
Veterinary Sciences Division, Agri-food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI), 12 Stoney Road, Stormont, Belfast BT4 3SD, UK.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2019 Feb;28:33-42. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2018.11.002. Epub 2018 Nov 14.
Despite a state-led eradication programme, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains endemic in Northern Ireland (NI). Of particular concern are "chronic" prolonged and recurrent bTB breakdowns, which represent significant financial and administrative burdens. However, little is known regarding the spatiotemporal distribution of chronic breakdowns in NI. We therefore analysed both the spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of chronic bTB breakdowns between 2004 and 2014. Significantly positive values for Moran's Index of spatial autocorrelation were found, and Local Moran's I clustering was employed to assess for spatial associations in the number and prevalence of chronic bTB breakdowns across NI. Additional spatio-temporal analysis using SaTScan showed that the burden of chronic bTB infection tends to be found where bTB levels are already high. However, a novel hotspot was revealed wherein the prevalence of chronic breakdowns was higher than expected; this should be the subject of follow-up surveillance.
尽管有政府主导的根除计划，但牛结核病（bTB）在北爱尔兰（NI）仍然流行。特别令人担忧的是“慢性”的长期和反复的牛结核病疫情复发，这带来了巨大的财政和行政负担。然而，对于北爱尔兰慢性疫情复发的时空分布知之甚少。因此，我们分析了2004年至2014年间慢性牛结核病疫情复发的空间和时空分布。发现空间自相关的莫兰指数具有显著正值，并采用局部莫兰指数聚类来评估北爱尔兰慢性牛结核病疫情复发数量和患病率的空间关联。使用SaTScan进行的额外时空分析表明，慢性牛结核病感染负担往往出现在牛结核病水平已经很高的地方。然而，发现了一个新的热点地区，其中慢性疫情复发的患病率高于预期；这应该是后续监测的对象。
