Goelzer Heiko, Robinson Alexander, Seroussi Helene, van de Wal Roderik S W
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
2Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Curr Clim Change Rep. 2017;3(4):291-302. doi: 10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y. Epub 2017 Nov 13.
This paper reviews the recent literature on numerical modelling of the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet with the goal of providing an overview of advancements and to highlight important directions of future research. In particular, the review is focused on large-scale modelling of the ice sheet, including future projections, model parameterisations, paleo applications and coupling with models of other components of the Earth system.
Data assimilation techniques have been used to improve the reliability of model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics, including more accurate initial states, more comprehensive use of remote sensing as well as paleo observations and inclusion of additional physical processes.
Modellers now leverage the increasing number of high-resolution satellite and air-borne data products to initialise ice sheet models for centennial time-scale simulations, needed for policy relevant sea-level projections. Modelling long-term past and future ice sheet evolution, which requires simplified but adequate representations of the interactions with the other components of the Earth system, has seen a steady improvement. Important developments are underway to include ice sheets in climate models that may lead to routine simulation of the fully coupled Greenland ice sheet-climate system in the coming years.
本文回顾了近期关于格陵兰冰盖动力学数值模拟的文献，旨在概述研究进展并突出未来重要的研究方向。特别是，该综述聚焦于冰盖的大规模模拟，包括未来预测、模型参数化、古气候应用以及与地球系统其他组成部分模型的耦合。
数据同化技术已被用于提高格陵兰冰盖动力学模型模拟的可靠性，包括更精确的初始状态、更全面地利用遥感以及古气候观测数据，并纳入额外的物理过程。
建模人员现在利用越来越多的高分辨率卫星和航空数据产品，为与政策相关的海平面预测所需的百年时间尺度模拟初始化冰盖模型。对长期过去和未来冰盖演变的建模，需要对与地球系统其他组成部分的相互作用进行简化但充分的描述，目前已有稳步改进。将冰盖纳入气候模型的重要进展正在进行中，这可能会在未来几年实现对完全耦合的格陵兰冰盖 - 气候系统的常规模拟。
