Saadat Soheil, Rahmani Khaled, Moradi Ali, Zaini Salah Ad-Din, Darabi Fatemeh
Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
Chin J Traumatol. 2019 Jun;22(3):148-154. doi: 10.1016/j.cjtee.2018.12.006. Epub 2019 Apr 6.
Traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death and disability, causing annual deaths of 1.23 million and tens of millions injured people worldwide. Meanwhile, a significant proportion of the deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents occur among motorcyclists. According to the world health organization's 2015 report, about 25% of deaths from traffic accidents occur in motorists. In Iran, a significant proportion of deaths and injuries result from traffic accidents among motorcyclists, especially in passages within the cities. According to traffic police, about 25% of deaths and 50% of injuries in traffic accidents of Tehran are reported among motorcyclists. Therefore, due to the importance of this issue, the spatial factors influencing the incidence of motorcycle-related accidents in Tehran were investigated using the geographic information system.
The present work was a cross-sectional and descriptive analysis study. The data necessary for the study were extracted from Tehran traffic police as well as municipality databases. Zoning maps were used to display the distribution of events. In the analytical investigation, Moran index was used to determine the distribution pattern of the events, while Getis-Ord G * statistics were applied to analyze hot spots. To investigate the role of regional and environmental factors in the frequency of traffic accidents related to motorcyclists in geographic units (Tehran 22 districts), Poisson regression and negative binomial models were used. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the location of these events. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS, STATA, ARC-GIS and GWR software.
The southern and eastern margins of Tehran are the most vulnerable areas in terms of deaths related to traffic accidents of motorcyclists. Highways are considered the location of most traffic accidents which lead to death of motorcyclists. Getis-Ord General G * (p < 0.04) indicates that the distribution of high-risk points is statistically significant. The final model showed that in Tehran, the association of different variables including demographic characteristics, pathways network and type of land use with the number of accidents in geographic units was statistically significant. The spatial distribution of traffic accidents leading to deaths of motorcyclists in the center of Tehran varies considerably with changes in population density, length of highways, volume of traffic, and land use in different parts.
Most of the traffic accidents leading to deaths of motorcyclists occur in highways. Various environmental variables play a role in determining the distribution pattern of these types of events. Through proper traffic management, controlling environmental risk factors and training people the safety of motorcyclists in Tehran can be improved.
交通事故是死亡和残疾的主要原因之一，在全球范围内每年造成123万人死亡和数千万人受伤。与此同时，交通事故造成的死亡和伤害中有很大一部分发生在骑摩托车的人当中。根据世界卫生组织2015年的报告，约25%的交通事故死亡发生在骑摩托车的人身上。在伊朗，很大一部分死亡和伤害是由骑摩托车的人发生交通事故造成的，尤其是在城市内部的路段。据交警统计，德黑兰交通事故中约25%的死亡和50%的受伤是骑摩托车的人。因此，由于这个问题的重要性，利用地理信息系统对影响德黑兰与摩托车相关事故发生率的空间因素进行了调查。
本研究为横断面描述性分析研究。研究所需数据从德黑兰交警以及市政数据库中提取。分区地图用于显示事件的分布。在分析调查中，莫兰指数用于确定事件的分布模式，而Getis-Ord G*统计量用于分析热点。为了调查区域和环境因素在地理单元（德黑兰22个区）中与骑摩托车的人相关的交通事故频率中的作用，使用了泊松回归和负二项式模型。地理加权回归（GWR）模型用于分析环境因素与这些事件位置之间的关系。使用SPSS、STATA、ARC-GIS和GWR软件进行统计分析。
就骑摩托车的人交通事故死亡而言，德黑兰的南部和东部边缘是最脆弱的地区。高速公路被认为是大多数导致骑摩托车的人死亡的交通事故发生地点。Getis-Ord通用G*（p<0.04）表明高风险点的分布具有统计学意义。最终模型表明，在德黑兰，包括人口特征、道路网络和土地利用类型在内的不同变量与地理单元中的事故数量之间的关联具有统计学意义。德黑兰市中心导致骑摩托车的人死亡的交通事故的空间分布随不同地区人口密度、高速公路长度、交通流量和土地利用的变化而有很大差异。
大多数导致骑摩托车的人死亡的交通事故发生在高速公路上。各种环境变量在确定此类事件的分布模式中起作用。通过适当的交通管理、控制环境风险因素和培训人员，可以提高德黑兰骑摩托车的人的安全性。
