School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, South-Zhongguancun Street, Beijing, 100081, People's Republic of China.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jul;26(19):19481-19489. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-05281-0. Epub 2019 May 10.
This study applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to identify and discuss the main drivers of Pakistan's CO emissions over the period 1990-2016. The study examined the effects of five factors based on Pakistan's three main economic sectors while considering the 11 types of fuels consumed in that country. The results showed that the energy structure effect is the greatest driving force of CO emissions in this country, followed by scale effect and economic structure effect. Energy intensity is the main contributor to reducing Pakistan's carbon emissions throughout the study period. A comparative review at the sectoral level shows that the industrial sector for which coal is the main source of energy supply is the one that contributes the most to CO emissions in Pakistan. Alongside this sector is the tertiary sector, where the transport sub-sector imposes rules of conduct based on a growing Pakistani population. Meanwhile, deforestation would be the main cause of CO emissions from the agricultural sector in Pakistan, as energy consumption in this sector remains very low. Improving energy efficiency through the intensification of clean energy is urgently needed if Pakistan's environmental goals are to be achieved.
本研究应用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）模型，识别并讨论了 1990-2016 年期间巴基斯坦 CO2 排放的主要驱动因素。该研究考察了基于巴基斯坦三个主要经济部门的五个因素的影响，同时考虑了该国消耗的 11 种燃料类型。结果表明，能源结构效应是该国 CO2 排放的最大驱动力，其次是规模效应和经济结构效应。在整个研究期间，能源强度是降低巴基斯坦碳排放的主要因素。在部门层面的比较审查显示，煤炭是主要能源供应来源的工业部门是对巴基斯坦 CO2 排放贡献最大的部门。与该部门并列的是第三产业，其中运输子部门根据不断增长的巴基斯坦人口制定了行为规则。与此同时，森林砍伐将是巴基斯坦农业部门 CO2 排放的主要原因，因为该部门的能源消耗仍然很低。如果要实现巴基斯坦的环境目标，就迫切需要通过清洁能源的强化来提高能源效率。
