Universität Bielefeld, Evolutionsbiologie, Konsequenz 45, 33615, Bielefeld, Germany.
University of California, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
Sci Rep. 2019 May 14;9(1):7373. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-43770-x.
Human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) has recently led to alterations in the fitness and behavior of many organisms. Game theory is an important tool of behavioral ecology for analyzing evolutionary situations involving multiple individuals. However, game theory bypasses the details by which behavioral phenotypes are determined, taking the functional perspective straight from expected payoffs to predicted frequencies of behaviors. In contrast with optimization approaches, we identify that to use existing game theoretic models to predict HIREC effects, additional mechanistic details (or assumptions) will often be required. We illustrate this in relation to the hawk-dove game by showing that three different mechanisms, each of which support the same ESS prior to HIREC (fixed polymorphism, probabilistic choice, or cue dependency), can have a substantial effect on behavior (and success) following HIREC. Surprisingly, an increase in the value of resources can lead to a reduction in payoffs (and vice versa), both in the immediate- and long-term following HIREC. An increase in expected costs also increases expected payoffs. Along with these counter-intuitive findings, this work shows that simply understanding the behavioral payoffs of existing games is insufficient to make predictions about the effects of HIREC.
人类引起的快速环境变化（HIREC）最近导致许多生物的适应性和行为发生了改变。博弈论是分析涉及多个个体的进化情况的行为生态学的重要工具。然而，博弈论忽略了行为表现形式的细节，直接从预期收益中采取功能观点来预测行为的频率。与优化方法不同，我们认为，要使用现有的博弈论模型来预测 HIREC 的影响，通常需要更多的机制细节（或假设）。我们通过展示鹰鸽博弈来说明这一点，其中三种不同的机制，每种机制在 HIREC 之前都支持相同的 ESS（固定多态性、概率选择或线索依赖性），可以对 HIREC 后的行为（和成功）产生重大影响。令人惊讶的是，资源价值的增加会导致收益的减少（反之亦然），无论是在 HIREC 后的短期还是长期。预期成本的增加也会增加预期收益。除了这些违反直觉的发现外，这项工作还表明，仅仅了解现有博弈的行为收益不足以对 HIREC 的影响做出预测。
