Ehelepola N D B, Ariyaratne Kusalika, Dissanayake Wasantha P
a Department of Medicine , Teaching (General) Hospital - Kandy , Kandy , Sri Lanka.
b Engineering Manager , Lanka Hydraulic Institute , Moratuwa , Sri Lanka.
Glob Health Action. 2019;12(1):1553283. doi: 10.1080/16549716.2018.1553283.
: Leptospirosis is an important public health problem in Sri Lanka. Most people become infected by contact with leptospires in soil and in surface water. Survival of leptospires in the environment depends upon the moisture in soil, humidity, temperature and surface water. Leptospires are spread by flood water and waterways. Therefore, the weather of an area influences the leptospirosis incidence of that area. : To find out the correlations between the leptospirosis incidence in the district of Kandy, Sri Lanka, and local weather variables and then to explore the utility of the findings. : We gathered data on reported leptospirosis cases in the Kandy district and mid-year population data and calculated weekly incidences for 2006 to 2015. Daily weather data from Katugastota weather station was obtained and converted into weekly data. We plotted time series graphs and observed the correlation between six aggregated weather parameters and leptospirosis incidence. Those weather parameters were rainfall, the count of wet days per week, days with rainfall >100 mm per week, minimum temperature, average temperature and average humidity. Then we looked for correlations between leptospirosis incidence and those weather parameters by performing the wavelet analysis. : Our wavelet analysis results show peaks of wet days per week, days with rainfall >100 mm per week, minimum temperature, average temperature and average humidity respectively after 2, 3, 13, 20 and 1 week lags were followed by peaks of leptospirosis incidence. Nadirs (troughs) of rainfall after a week were followed by nadirs of leptospirosis incidence. : All weather parameters studied are correlated with local leptospirosis incidence and the climate in Kandy is conducive for leptospirosis transmission. Leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy district is high compared to the national and global incidence. Therefore, leptospirosis preventive work in Kandy deserves more attention, especially during months with favorable weather for leptospirosis transmission. Video abstract Read the transcript Watch the video on Vimeo.
钩端螺旋体病是斯里兰卡一个重要的公共卫生问题。大多数人通过接触土壤和地表水中的钩端螺旋体而感染。钩端螺旋体在环境中的存活取决于土壤湿度、空气湿度、温度和地表水。钩端螺旋体通过洪水和水道传播。因此，一个地区的天气会影响该地区钩端螺旋体病的发病率。
找出斯里兰卡康提地区钩端螺旋体病发病率与当地天气变量之间的相关性，然后探讨研究结果的实用性。
我们收集了康提地区报告的钩端螺旋体病病例数据和年中人口数据，并计算了2006年至2015年的每周发病率。获取了卡图加斯托塔气象站的每日天气数据并将其转换为每周数据。我们绘制了时间序列图，并观察了六个综合气象参数与钩端螺旋体病发病率之间的相关性。这些气象参数是降雨量、每周湿天数、每周降雨量>100毫米的天数、最低温度、平均温度和平均湿度。然后，我们通过进行小波分析来寻找钩端螺旋体病发病率与这些气象参数之间的相关性。
我们的小波分析结果显示，每周湿天数、每周降雨量>100毫米的天数、最低温度、平均温度和平均湿度的峰值分别在滞后2周、3周、13周、20周和1周后，紧接着是钩端螺旋体病发病率的峰值。降雨量在一周后的最低点之后是钩端螺旋体病发病率的最低点。
所有研究的气象参数都与当地钩端螺旋体病发病率相关，康提的气候有利于钩端螺旋体病的传播。与全国和全球发病率相比，康提地区的钩端螺旋体病发病率较高。因此，康提的钩端螺旋体病预防工作值得更多关注，特别是在有利于钩端螺旋体病传播的天气月份。视频摘要阅读文字记录在Vimeo上观看视频
