Metcalf C Jessica E, Walter Katharine S, Wesolowski Amy, Buckee Caroline O, Shevliakova Elena, Tatem Andrew J, Boos William R, Weinberger Daniel M, Pitzer Virginia E
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Office of Population Research, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2017 Aug 16;284(1860). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0901.
Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.
气候变化可能会深刻地调节传染病负担。然而，将健康影响归因于气候变化需要能够将传染病发病率的变化与气候的潜在复杂影响联系起来。许多感染动态中固有的非线性反馈使这一目标进一步复杂化，这些反馈由免疫和传播过程驱动。在这里，我们详细阐述了气候驱动因素影响传染病发病率的机制，从对病媒生活史的直接影响到对人类易感性的间接影响，并详细说明了可用于探究这些机制的变化范围。我们回顾了用于评估和量化气候与传染病发病率之间关联的方法，讨论了解决这一问题可用的数据类型，并详细说明了在理解气候变化对传染病发病率影响方面仍然存在的挑战。我们指出了气候科学和传染病生物学中使用的方法之间的综合有可能取得进展的领域。
