van Ruijven Bas J, De Cian Enrica, Sue Wing Ian
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.
Nat Commun. 2019 Jun 24;10(1):2762. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3.
Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.
由于气候变化，未来能源需求可能会增加，但其增幅取决于许多相互作用的不确定性因素。我们结合了通过计量经济学估计得出的能源使用对收入、炎热和寒冷天数的响应，以及在五种社会经济情景下对空间人口和国民收入的未来预测，以及由21个地球系统模型（ESMs）模拟的两种排放情景下2050年左右的气温升高情况。我们在此表明，在210种社会经济和气候情景的实现情况中，剧烈（适度）变暖会使2050年左右适应前全球气候暴露的能源需求增加25%-58%（11%-27%），此外，由于社会经济发展，能源需求比当前水平增加1.7-2.8倍。我们发现地球系统模型之间存在广泛共识，即热带地区以及美国、欧洲和中国的南部地区能源需求增长超过25%。社会经济情景中，低收入国家面临能源需求增加的人口数量差异很大。
