Prudhvi Guddanti Kishan, Chen Lin, Weng Yang, Yu Yang
School of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA.
Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jun 2;16(1):5116. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59749-4.
Global climate change (GCC) triggers a chain effect, converting temperature pattern changes into variations in blackout risk for power distribution grids (DGs). This occurs through GCC's impacts on electricity supply, demand, and infrastructure, which shift the DG's safe-operation boundary and power flow. This study presents a model integration framework to assess the associated blackout risk, showing that GCC raises blackout risks during peak hours by 4-6%, depending on Gross Domestic Product growth. Kirchhoff's laws amplify these effects, creating nonlinear risk trajectories. Analysis of the chain effect suggests adaptation strategies, including reshaping grid topology and pairing temperature-sensitive users with robust buses. Index-based analysis reveals that over 20% of the U.S. requires at least a 10% DG capacity increase before 2050, with six states exceeding 20%. Europe faces a more moderate impact. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize peak-load management and address nonlinear risks across regions.
全球气候变化（GCC）引发连锁效应，将温度模式变化转化为配电网（DG）停电风险的变化。这是通过GCC对电力供应、需求和基础设施的影响实现的，这些影响会改变DG的安全运行边界和潮流。本研究提出了一个模型集成框架来评估相关的停电风险，结果表明，根据国内生产总值（GDP）的增长情况，GCC会使高峰时段的停电风险提高4%至6%。基尔霍夫定律会放大这些影响，产生非线性风险轨迹。对连锁效应的分析提出了一些适应策略，包括重塑电网拓扑结构以及将对温度敏感的用户与稳健的母线配对。基于指标的分析表明，到2050年之前，美国超过20%的地区需要将DG容量至少提高10%，有六个州超过20%。欧洲面临的影响较为温和。这些发现凸显了政策制定者将峰值负荷管理作为优先事项并应对各地区非线性风险的必要性。
