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本文引用的文献

1
Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States.评估流感预测和流行病学模型在美国公共卫生决策中的应用。
Sci Rep. 2018 Aug 17;8(1):12406. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-30378-w.
2
Response to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.对刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情的应对。
Lancet. 2018 Jun 16;391(10138):2395-2398. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31326-6.
3
Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice.将实时传染病建模转化为常规公共卫生实践
Emerg Infect Dis. 2017 May;23(5). doi: 10.3201/eid2305.161720.
4
Zika virus: ethics preparedness for old and new challenges.寨卡病毒：应对新旧挑战的伦理准备
Lancet Glob Health. 2016 Oct;4(10):e686. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30222-4.
5
Make Data Sharing Routine to Prepare for Public Health Emergencies.让数据共享成为常态，为公共卫生突发事件做好准备。
PLoS Med. 2016 Aug 16;13(8):e1002109. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002109. eCollection 2016 Aug.
6
Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge.疾病控制与预防中心对2013 - 2014年流感季挑战的预测结果。
BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Jul 22;16:357. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1669-x.
7
Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.塞拉利昂埃博拉疫苗试验的统计效能与效度：一项关于试验设计与分析的模拟研究
Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Jun;15(6):703-10. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70139-8. Epub 2015 Apr 14.
8
Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic--Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.估算2014 - 2015年利比里亚和塞拉利昂埃博拉疫情未来的病例数
MMWR Suppl. 2014 Sep 26;63(3):1-14.
9
Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.西非埃博拉病毒病——疫情头9个月及未来预测
N Engl J Med. 2014 Oct 16;371(16):1481-95. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100. Epub 2014 Sep 22.
10
Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.近期预测美洲基孔肯雅病毒的传播情况。
PLoS One. 2014 Aug 11;9(8):e104915. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104915. eCollection 2014.

利用“暴发科学”加强疫情期间模型的使用。

Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics.

机构信息

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Baltimore, MD, 21202, USA.

Department of Defense, Fort Detrick, MD, 21702, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2019 Jul 15;10(1):3102. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-11067-2.

DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-11067-2
PMID:31308372
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6629683/
Abstract

Infectious disease modeling has played a prominent role in recent outbreaks, yet integrating these analyses into public health decision-making has been challenging. We recommend establishing ‘outbreak science’ as an inter-disciplinary field to improve applied epidemic modeling.

摘要

传染病建模在最近的疫情中发挥了重要作用，但将这些分析纳入公共卫生决策一直具有挑战性。我们建议将“疫情科学”作为一个跨学科领域来建立，以改进应用传染病模型。