University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Anthropology, Urbana, 61801, USA.
N.C. State University, Center for Research in Scientific Computation, Raleigh, 27695, USA.
Sci Rep. 2019 Jul 22;9(1):10575. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-46218-4.
Because of limited data, much remains uncertain about parameters related to transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV). Estimating a large number of parameters from the limited information in data may not provide useful knowledge about the ZIKV. Here, we developed a method that utilizes a mathematical model of ZIKV dynamics and the complex-step derivative approximation technique to identify parameters that can be estimated from the available data. Applying our method to epidemic data from the ZIKV outbreaks in French Polynesia and Yap Island, we identified the parameters that can be estimated from these island data. Our results suggest that the parameters that can be estimated from a given data set, as well as the estimated values of those parameters, vary from Island to Island. Our method allowed us to estimate some ZIKV-related parameters with reasonable confidence intervals. We also computed the basic reproduction number to be from 2.03 to 3.20 across islands. Furthermore, using our model, we evaluated potential prevention strategies and found that peak prevalence can be reduced to nearly 10% by reducing mosquito-to-human contact by at least 60% or increasing mosquito death by at least a factor of three of the base case. With these preventions, the final outbreak-size is predicted to be negligible, thereby successfully controlling ZIKV epidemics.
由于数据有限，关于寨卡病毒（ZIKV）传播动力学相关参数的许多问题仍不确定。从数据中有限的信息中估计大量参数可能无法提供有关 ZIKV 的有用知识。在这里，我们开发了一种利用 ZIKV 动力学数学模型和复步导数逼近技术来识别可从可用数据中估计的参数的方法。将我们的方法应用于来自法属波利尼西亚和 Yap 岛的 ZIKV 暴发的流行数据，我们确定了可从这些岛屿数据中估计的参数。我们的结果表明，可从给定数据集估计的参数以及这些参数的估计值因岛屿而异。我们的方法允许我们以合理的置信区间估计一些与 ZIKV 相关的参数。我们还计算了基本繁殖数，结果显示各岛屿的基本繁殖数在 2.03 到 3.20 之间。此外，使用我们的模型，我们评估了潜在的预防策略，发现通过将蚊子与人类的接触减少至少 60%或使蚊子死亡率比基础病例至少增加三倍，可将峰值流行率降低到近 10%。通过这些预防措施，预计最终的暴发规模将微不足道，从而成功控制 ZIKV 流行。
