Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101;
Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME 04544.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Sep 10;116(37):18378-18383. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1901084116. Epub 2019 Aug 5.
The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.
在给定地点的物种群落、人类机构和人类活动，都受到该地点历史条件（均值和变异性）的塑造。人为气候变化现在在现有自然变异性之上增加了强烈的趋势。这些趋势增加了“意外情况”的频率——即根据近期历史数据无法预测的情况。在这里，我们表明，令人惊讶的海洋温度的频率增加速度甚至比根据近期温度趋势所预期的还要快。我们使用一个简单的人类适应模型表明，这些意外情况将越来越多地挑战依赖历史经验的自然适应模式。我们还表明，变暖速度可能会使自然群落向具有普遍性的物种转移，降低它们的生产力和多样性。我们的工作表明，个人和机构越来越受益于押注趋势将继续，但这种策略代表了一个激进的转变，许多人可能难以接受。
