Melbourne-Thomas Jess, Audzijonyte Asta, Brasier Madeleine J, Cresswell Katherine A, Fogarty Hannah E, Haward Marcus, Hobday Alistair J, Hunt Heather L, Ling Scott D, McCormack Phillipa C, Mustonen Tero, Mustonen Kaisu, Nye Janet A, Oellermann Michael, Trebilco Rowan, van Putten Ingrid, Villanueva Cecilia, Watson Reg A, Pecl Gretta T
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia.
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.
Rev Fish Biol Fish. 2022;32(1):231-251. doi: 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3. Epub 2021 Mar 29.
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.
气候变化对世界海洋最显著的影响之一是物种和渔业资源（总体上）向极地移动，以应对水温上升。在一些地区，这种重新分布已经导致海洋社会生态系统发生巨大变化，深刻改变了生态系统的结构和功能，给国内和国际渔业带来挑战，并对人类社区产生影响。随着海水持续变暖，物种分布范围继续变化，预计这些影响将越来越普遍。在未来十年（2021 - 2030年）采取的行动可以帮助我们适应物种重新分布，并将对生态系统和人类社区的负面影响降至最低，在面对生态系统变化时实现更可持续的未来。我们描述了与气候驱动的物种重新分布相关的关键驱动因素，这些因素可能对到2030年能否实现可持续未来产生重大影响。我们设想了两种不同的未来——一种是“照常营业”的未来，另一种是技术上可行且更可持续的未来，与可持续发展目标相一致。然后，我们确定了具体行动，这些行动为实现更可持续的2030年提供了一条途径，并承认和纳入了原住民的观点。实现这一可持续未来将取决于改进监测和探测，以及采取适应性的合作管理，以积极应对物种重新分布的挑战。我们综合了这些行动的例子，作为应对这一全球挑战、造福人类和生态系统的战略方法的基础。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3获取的补充材料。
