非洲无条件的政府社会现金转移不会增加生育率。
Unconditional Government Social Cash Transfer in Africa Does not Increase Fertility.
作者信息
Palermo Tia, Handa Sudhanshu, Peterman Amber, Prencipe Leah, Seidenfeld David
机构信息
UNICEF Office of Research-Innocenti, Florence, Italy.
Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
出版信息
J Popul Econ. 2016 Oct;29(4):1083-1111. doi: 10.1007/s00148-016-0596-x. Epub 2016 Apr 29.
Abstract
Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to households with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a government unconditional cash transfer targeted to households with a child under the age of five and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over four years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.
摘要
在政策制定者中，围绕现金转移计划的影响，尤其是针对有孩子家庭的无条件计划，一种普遍的看法是这些计划会导致生育率上升。我们评估了赞比亚儿童补助金计划，这是一项针对有五岁以下儿童家庭的政府无条件现金转移计划，并研究其对生育率和家庭构成的影响。该评估是一项整群随机对照试验，在2010年至2014年的四年间收集数据。我们的结果表明，该计划对总体生育率没有影响。我们的研究结果为一个小的证据库做出了贡献，证明现金转移不会产生与生育率相关的意外激励。
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