Department of Urology, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Department of Statistics, Graduate School of Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea.
Cancer Res Treat. 2020 Jan;52(1):301-308. doi: 10.4143/crt.2019.194. Epub 2019 Aug 1.
Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence is affected by aging phenomenon and performance of screening test. In United States, PCa incidence is affected by period effect of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation. However, no study has reported the effect of USPSTF recommendation or aging phenomenon on PCa incidence in South Korea. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate effects of age, period, and birth cohort on PCa incidence using age-period-cohort analysis.
Annual report of cancer statistics between 2003 and 2013 from National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) in South Korea for the number of PCa patients and Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) data between 2003 and 2013 from national statistics in South Korea for the number of Korean male population were used. Age-period-cohort models were used to investigate effects of age, period, and birth cohort on PCa incidence.
Overall PCa incidence in South Korea was increased 8.8% in annual percentage (95% confidential interval, 6.5 to 11.2; p < 0.001). It showed an increasing pattern from 2003 to 2011 but a decreasing pattern from 2011 to 2013. Age increased the risk of PCa incidence. However, the speed of increase was slower with increasing age. PCa incidence was increased 1.4 times in 2008 compared to that in 2003 or 2013. Regarding cohort effect, the risk of PCa incidence started to increase from 1958 cohort.
PCa incidence was affected by period of specific year. There was a positive cohort effect on PCa incidence associated with age structural change.
前列腺癌（PCa）的发病率受老龄化现象和筛查试验的表现的影响。在美国，PCa 的发病率受美国预防服务工作组（USPSTF）建议的时期效应的影响。然而，尚无研究报告 USPSTF 建议或老龄化现象对韩国 PCa 发病率的影响。因此，本研究的目的是使用年龄-时期-队列分析来调查年龄、时期和出生队列对 PCa 发病率的影响。
使用韩国国家健康保险服务（NHIS）2003 年至 2013 年的癌症统计年度报告中 PCa 患者人数以及韩国国家统计数据 2003 年至 2013 年的韩国男性人口数量，以及韩国统计信息服务（KOSIS）数据。使用年龄-时期-队列模型来研究年龄、时期和出生队列对 PCa 发病率的影响。
韩国整体 PCa 发病率每年增加 8.8%（95%置信区间，6.5%至 11.2%；p<0.001）。从 2003 年到 2011 年呈上升趋势，但从 2011 年到 2013 年呈下降趋势。年龄增加了 PCa 发病率的风险。然而，随着年龄的增加，增长速度较慢。与 2003 年或 2013 年相比，2008 年 PCa 发病率增加了 1.4 倍。关于队列效应，1958 年队列的 PCa 发病率开始增加。
PCa 发病率受特定年份的时期影响。与年龄结构变化相关的 PCa 发病率存在正的队列效应。
