Boman John H, Mowen Thomas J
Bowling Green State University.
Criminology. 2018 Feb;56(1):191-224. doi: 10.1111/1745-9125.12167. Epub 2017 Dec 15.
Turning points, between-person differences, and within-person changes have all been linked to desistance from crime. Nevertheless, the means through which between- person differences are frequently captured in life-course criminology makes them intertwined with, and perhaps confounded by, turning points in life. We propose that a new way of capturing the between-person effect-the baseline between-person difference-could benefit theoretically informed tests of developmental and life-course issues in criminology. Because they occur at one time point immediately preceding a turning point in life, we demonstrate that baseline between-person differences establish meaningful theoretical connections to behavior and the way people change over time. By using panel data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, we estimate models capturing within-person change and baseline between-person differences in social bonds (family support) and differential association (peer criminality) at the time of release from prison. The results demonstrate that baseline levels of family support protect people from postrelease substance use but not from crime. Baseline between- person differences and within-person changes in peer criminality, however, are robustly related to crime and substance use. Collectively, baseline between-person differences seem critical for behavior and within-person change over time, and the results carry implications for reentry-based policy as well as for theory testing in developmental criminology more broadly.
转折点、个体间差异以及个体内部变化都与犯罪停止相关联。然而，在生命历程犯罪学中，捕捉个体间差异的常用方法使其与人生转折点相互交织，甚至可能被其混淆。我们提出，一种捕捉个体间效应的新方法——基线个体间差异——可能有益于对犯罪学中发展和生命历程问题进行理论指导的检验。由于它们出现在人生转折点之前的一个时间点，我们证明基线个体间差异与行为以及人们随时间的变化方式建立了有意义的理论联系。通过使用来自严重暴力罪犯重新融入计划的面板数据，我们估计了捕捉个体内部变化以及出狱时社会纽带（家庭支持）和差异交往（同伴犯罪行为）的基线个体间差异的模型。结果表明，家庭支持的基线水平能保护人们出狱后不沾染毒品，但不能防止犯罪。然而，同伴犯罪行为的基线个体间差异和个体内部变化与犯罪及毒品使用密切相关。总体而言，基线个体间差异似乎对行为和个体随时间的变化至关重要，这些结果对基于重新融入的政策以及更广泛的发展犯罪学理论检验都有启示意义。
